Fantasy Football QB Breakouts 2023: Potential quarterback sleepers
Every year in fantasy football drafts, owners try to find sleepers that contribute while one of their star players is on a bye or underperforming. Quarterback is usually one of the positions where you can find high-quality breakout candidates lower in the rankings, and 2023 is no different, as there are plenty of mid- and lower-tier QBs that have top-12 upside if things break right for them.
This season’s group of sleepers ranges from bona fide veterans (Deshaun Watson and Jimmy Garoppolo) to young quarterbacks looking to make a name for themselves (Anthony Richardson, Jordan Love, and Bryce Young). We also have a couple of QBs (Kenny Pickett and Brock Purdy) who showed flashes of greatness in their first seasons and will try to replicate that in their second years. Regardless of which sleeper you select in your fantasy draft, you hope the one you get will become a top-12 QB in fantasy this season.
Among the several quarterbacks with the sleeper tag, Richardson is one of the more popular players that owners will be looking to draft late or pick up off of waivers. The dynamic Colts' rookie has a big arm, can make plays out of the pocket like Lamar Jackson and Justin Fields, and will be learning from new head coach Shane Steichen. Steichen spent the last two years with Eagles QB Jalen Hurts and helped him become the best fantasy QB last year on a point-per-game basis.
DOMINATE YOUR DRAFT: Ultimate 2023 Fantasy Cheat Sheet
Richardson won’t become a top-five player this year, but he can still hopefully produce enough to have a few monster weeks. Young will hope to join his 2023 draft classmate in that regard, as he’s been given the keys to the car in Carolina. The No. 1 overall pick might not have the prototypical size for a QB, but he can throw the ball around the field and move well outside the pocket.
2023 STANDARD RANKINGS:
QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | D/STs | Ks | Top 200 | S-Flex | IDP
Along with the rookie signal-callers, two veteran quarterbacks could be due for nice bounce-back seasons. Garoppolo is in a new situation but reunited with his old offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels with the Raiders. Meanwhile, Watson hopes to return to the form that saw him finish as a top-five fantasy QB three years in a row in Houston.
2023 PPR RANKINGS:
QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | D/STs | Ks | Top 200 | S-Flex | IDP
Ultimately, at a position as "established" as quarterback, it’s tough to feel great about most of these sleepers as your Week 1 starter, but having one on your roster in single-QB leagues makes sense. At least one or two will break out, and a couple more will provide good value as a spot starter.
2023 FANTASY SLEEPERS
RBs | WRs | TEs | D/STs | Each Team
Fantasy Football QB Sleepers 2023: Potential quarterback breakouts
Deshaun Watson, Browns
Watson is looking to have a better 2023 season with the Browns after a dismal six-game debut last season. The vet completed a career-low 58.2 percent of his passes for 1,102 yards, seven touchdowns, and five interceptions. He also averaged 6.5 yards per attempt, which ranked him with Davis Mills and Baker Mayfield.
Simply put, it wasn’t a good season for Watson, who hasn’t played a full year of football since 2020. The 27-year-old is ranked in Tier 3 of our QB rankings but could elevate all the way to Tier 1 if he recaptures his form from '18-'20 when he averaged 4,280 passing yards, 28.3 passing TDs, 469.3 rushing yards, and five rushing TDs per season. Cleveland has a loaded offense with Nick Chubb, David Njoku, Amari Cooper, Elijah Moore, Donovan Peoples-Jones, and Cedric Tillman. You can rarely get a proven, potential top-three QB as the ninth or 10th QB off the board in your draft.
Anthony Richardson, Colts
Richardson has a lot of buzz and hype surrounding him before his first NFL snap. The young quarterback was drafted with the fourth pick by the Colts, which was a perfect spot for him, as he will get to work with new head coach Shane Steichen. Steichen was successful with Jalen Hurts, who plays similarly to Richardson. Owners hope Richardson can become a top-tier fantasy QB, but that won’t happen immediately despite his abilities.
The rookie QB will have his fair share of growing pains in Year 1, but he (hopefully) will have a star running back to lean on in Jonathan Taylor. Also, Indy's receiving corps (Michael Pittman Jr., Alec Pierce, Josh Downs, Jelani Woods) is a bit underrated, so Richardson could have slightly better passing numbers than most anticipate. Ultimately, though, Richardson's fantasy value will come down to his rushing ability, and if things break right, he has the potential to have a similar season to Justin Fields last year.
2023 AUCTION VALUES (Standard & PPR):
QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | D/STs | Ks | Overall
Kenny Pickett, Steelers
Pickett was one of our sleeper QBs heading into last season when he was waiting in the wings behind Mitchell Trubisky. He took over for Trubisky in Week 5 and took hold of the starting job. The former first-round pick completed 63 percent of his passes for 2,404 yards, seven touchdowns, and five interceptions. He also showcased his mobility, running for 237 yards and three touchdowns.
Pickett won’t have rushing stats like Jalen Hurts, Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, or Justin Fields, but his ability to escape the pocket is an added bonus for the Steelers' offense. Pickett should improve heading into Year 2, as he’ll have a full offseason and training camp to work with George Pickens, Diontae Johnson, Allen Robinson, Pat Freiermuth, and Najee Harris. Last season, Pickett averaged 29.9 passing attempts per game, which shows how comfortable Mike Tomlin was with the young quarterback throwing the ball. Given the weapons around him, Pickett could be one of the best QB value picks in fantasy drafts this year.
Brock Purdy, 49ers
Purdy was one of the top late-season waiver pickups last season. The former Iowa State quarterback replaced an injured Jimmy Garoppolo in Week 13 and played above everybody’s expectations. He finished the regular season with 1,374 passing yards, 13 touchdowns, and four interceptions, averaging 18.6 fantasy points per game, which is pretty good for a rookie that started the year as the third-string QB.
Purdy could put up similar numbers this season, depending on his health, as he’s rehabbing from a torn UCL injury. With playmakers such as George Kittle, Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, and Christian McCaffrey -- all of whom are great after the catch -- Purdy should be one or more productive QB2s in fantasy this season. If he stays healthy and continues to improve, he could even be a fringe every-week starter.
2023 POSITION TIERS & DRAFT STRATEGY:
QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | D/ST
Jordan Love, Packers
Love has played in just 10 games, starting one, over his short NFL career. When he made an emergency start against the Chiefs in 2021, he completed just 55.8 percent of his passes for 190 yards, a touchdown, and an interception. It wasn’t a perfect starting debut for Love, but he should be more comfortable as the team's unquestioned, better-prepared starter.
The Packers have a ton of young pass-catchers at wide receiver/tight end (Christian Watson, Jayden Reed, Romeo Doubs, Luke Musgrave) to go with a veteran offensive line and star-studded running back duo (Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon) to help Love through his first season as a starter. Love won’t be drafted in most single-QB leagues, but he could be one of the top waiver-wire adds at some point in the season.
Jimmy Garoppolo, Raiders
Garoppolo will look to rejuvenate his career with the Raiders and Josh McDaniels, who was his old offensive coordinator in New England. Garoppolo played in just 11 games last year with the 49ers before suffering a season-ending foot injury in December. The veteran QB completed 67.2 percent of his passes for 2,437 yards, 16 touchdowns, and four interceptions.
He will try to improve those stats in Las Vegas, where he has Davante Adams, Jakobi Meyers, Hunter Renfrow, Josh Jacobs, Michael Mayer, and Austin Hooper. It’s not a bad set of receivers, and if Garoppolo can stay healthy (a big "if," no doubt), he could be a fringe QB1 most weeks. Derek Carr finished as the QB17 last season despite missing two games, and Garoppolo has a similar outlook. When he played 16 games for the 49ers in 2019, he finished as the QB14 despite attempting just 476 passes. To put that in perspective, Carr attempted 502 passes last year.
FANTASY DRAFT STRATEGY:
Snake | Auction | Best ball | Dynasty | IDP
Bryce Young, Panthers
Even though the Panthers signed Andy Dalton in the offseason, Young is the guy in Carolina as they usher in a new era with head coach Frank Reich. Young could thrive in his first year with the Panthers, as he has some decent veteran playmakers surrounding him (Adam Thielen, DJ Chark, Miles Sanders, and Hayden Hurst). However, just as with Richardson, owners should temper their expectations of Young, who will have his good and bad games.
In his last season at the University of Alabama, Young completed 64.5 percent of his passes for 3,328 yards, 32 touchdowns, and five interceptions while adding 185 rushing yards and four rushing scores. He won’t be drafted in many leagues, as he plays in a division with some formidable defenses. However, if he shows improvement under Reich, Young will have some streamer appeal this season.