Will the top seeds advance to the Super Bowl again?
That could be the case on conference championship weekend when Baltimore and San Francisco will hope to keep it chalky for Super Bowl 58 at Allegiant Stadium in Paradise, Nev., on Feb. 11.
Baltimore meets Kansas City in the AFC Championship game at 3 p.m. on CBS. Lamar Jackson had 352 total yards and four TDs in a 34-10 blowout against Houston in the divisional round. The Ravens are making their fifth AFC Championship appearance, but this is the first one at home.
Kansas City continued its postseason dominance over Buffalo, upsetting the Bills 27-24 in the divisional round. Patrick Mahomes has led the Chiefs to their sixth straight AFC Championship appearance, and Andy Reid has a chance to push Kansas City to its fourth Super Bowl in five seasons.
San Francisco meets Detroit in the NFC Championship game at 6:30 p.m. on FOX.
The 49ers are making their third straight appearance in the NFC Championship game under coach Kyle Shanahan. Brock Purdy is healthy this time, but Deebo Samuel (shoulder) suffered a key injury in the 24-21 victory against Green Bay in the divisional round. That will be worth monitoring ahead of the matchup against Detroit.
The Lions are enjoying a breakthrough season under third-year coach Dan Campbell. Detroit is making its first NFC Championship appearance since 1992 after a 31-23 victory against Tampa Bay in the divisional round. Jared Goff will try to advance to his second Super Bowl as a starter – the first coming with the Rams in 2019 -- and provide Detroit with enough confidence to steal a road victory.
Here are Sporting News' picks for the AFC and NFC Championship games (odds courtesy of Caesars):
NFL picks, predictions for championship games
- Kansas City Chiefs at Baltimore Ravens (-3.5)
Sunday, 3 p.m., CBS
This marks the fifth head-to-head meeting between the Chiefs and Ravens with Jackson and Mahomes as the starting quarterbacks. Baltimore is 1-3 in those games, and Jackson has a 56.2-percent completion percentage with four TDs and two interceptions in those games.
Jackson, however, is playing at a presumed-MVP level, which he showed against the Texans. Can Kansas City defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo keep Jackson in contain with linebackers Drue Tranquill and Nick Bolton? Chris Jones is a game-changer on the interior for the Chiefs, and Baltimore needs to generate an inside running game with Gus Edwards and Justice Hill. Zay Flowers and L’Jarius Sneed will be a key matchup on the perimeter, and Baltimore needs to win that one a few times.
The Ravens haven’t had an answer for Patrick Mahomes in those previous four meetings. Mahomes averages 370 passing yards with 12 TDs and two interceptions in those games, and that comes with a 71.8-percent completion percentage. The connection with Travis Kelce was back in full force against the Bills, and he will test Baltimore linebackers Roquan Smith and Patrick Queen. Isiah Pacheco has added a physical presence in the running game, and Rashee Rice has emerged as a go-to receiver. The Chiefs have one turnover in each of the past two games, including a goal-line fumble by Mecole Hardman against the Bills. In those four previous meetings, Mahomes took just four sacks. Baltimore must land in those pressure situations, and it cannot let Mahomes make the plays in improv situations.
Baltimore allowed more than 24 points in two games this season. Kansas City allowed more than 24 points in one game this season. That will be the magic number for the winner, and this is the Ravens’ best chance to knock out the best team in the AFC.
The Chiefs are 9-3-1 ATS as an underdog during this six-year run. The Ravens are 6-0 ATS and 6-0 S/U when favored by four points or less this season.
Mahomes just continues to find ways to get it done in the postseason. That said, the Ravens were our pick when the playoffs started. We'll stick with it knowing the Chiefs can blow that plan up.
Pick: Ravens 27, Chiefs 24
- Detroit Lions at San Francisco 49ers (-7)
Sunday, 6:30 p.m., CBS
Why does Samuel's shoulder injury loom so large? He suffered a similar injury in Week 6 against Cleveland, and he missed two games after that. The 49ers were 0-3 in that stretch, and Purdy posted just three TDs and five INTs while completing a modest 62.5 percent of his passes during that span. It would have a profound effect on the passing attack if Samuel was out. Samuel had nine catches for 189 yards and a TD in the 49ers’ 41-33 victory against Detroit last season.
Christian McCaffrey had 24 touches against Green Bay, and Purdy will test the middle of the field with tight end George Kittle against Kerby Joseph and C.J. Gardner-Johnson. Can the Lions generate an edge rush against the 49ers? Purdy has taken just eight sacks in San Francisco’s past seven games. San Francisco tackle Colton McKivitz has allowed nine sacks this season, and Detroit edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson has three sacks in two playoff games. That is a matchup Hutchinson has to win consistently on third down.
Detroit’s offense is a multi-faceted challenge for the 49ers. Jared Goff has averaged 282 passing yards per game with three TDs in two postseason games. Goff’s passer rating drops to 89.4 on the road this season, however, and he will be up against a fantastic edge rush featuring Nick Bosa and Chase Young. Detroit offensive coordinator Ben Johnson will utilize a quick passing game with Amon-Ra St. Brown on the perimeter, and rookie tight end Sam LaPorta will have to win against San Francisco linebackers Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw.
The X-factor for Detroit is Jahmyr Gibbs, who averages 11.4 yards per touch in the postseason and is a mismatch in space. How much will Detroit feed Gibbs? Can he match the production of McCaffrey? That could tilt the matchup in favor of Detroit.
Detroit has not had a turnover in two postseason games after having an even turnover margin this season. The 49ers were +2 against the Packers and +12 for the season. One or two turnovers in this matchup could be the difference.
The Lions are the best team against the spread this season at 13-6. Detroit is 2-1 ATS and 1-2 S/U as an underdog this season, and those games were against the Chiefs, Cowboys, and Ravens. San Francisco is 4-0 ATS and 4-0 S/U when favored by four points or less. This should be a classic -- and Samuel’s status is huge -- but we’ll stick with the home team.
Pick: 49ers 31, Lions 28
Season stats
Regular-season S/U: 172-100
Playoffs S/U: 5-5
Regular-season ATS: 142-122-8
Playoffs ATS: 1-9