Will this be Jim Harbaugh's last game at Michigan?
That remains an open-ended question heading into the College Football Playoff semifinal matchup at the Rose Bowl Game between No. 1 Michigan and No. 4 Alabama on Monday. Harbaugh spent the last nine seasons with his alma mater – and that has led to three straight Big Ten championships and CFP appearances.
The 2023 season was covered in controversy. Harbaugh served a school-imposed three-game suspension to start the season as a result of a NCAA investigation into impermissible contact with recruits – a case in which he now faces a Level I infraction.
Harbaugh missed the last three games of the regular season after a Big Ten suspension as a result of an in-person scouting and sign-stealing investigation that resulted in the firing of staffer Connor Stalions and assistant coach Chris Partridge.
Will that combination lead to Harbaugh opting for a parachute to the NFL? A closer look at Harbaugh's coaching future.
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Will Rose Bowl be Jim Harbaugh's last game at Michigan?
On Dec. 24, NFL.com's Ian Rapoport reported Michigan offered Harbaugh – whose contract runs through the 2026 season – a 10-year, $125-million contract extension. That comes with the condition he would not entertain or accept a NFL job for the 2024 season.
Harbaugh is currently on a five-year, $36.7 million deal that he signed in 2022.
What potential penalties does Jim Harbaugh face in college?
Harbaugh could face further punishment from the NCAA based on those two NCAA investigations. On Nov. 24, Fox's Bruce Feldman reported Harbaugh could be suspended for "the bulk of the 2024 season." Of course, the separate investigations will be completed on the NCAA's timetable – which has been wildly inconsistent over the years.
The Level I infraction is the most serious. Kansas basketball coach Bill Self faced Level I infractions, but was charged with Level II and Level III violations after serving a four-game suspension as part of a lengthy investigation that concluded Oct. 11, 2023.
Harbaugh also could be subject to a show-cause penalty. Former Ohio State coach Jim Tressel was given a five-year show-cause penalty in 2011 as part of the TattooGate scandal. These penalties are why there is an open question whether Harbaugh returns to Michigan next season. Jeremy Pruitt, who coached at Tennessee from 2018-20, received a show-cause for recruiting violations during his time with the Volunteers and was fired.
Will Jim Harbaugh stay at Michigan in 2024?
Harbaugh is 84-25 at Michigan. Michigan is 38-3 the last three seasons – their best run since the Bo Schembechler heyday in the 1970s. The Wolverines beat rival Ohio State each of the last three seasons – a feat that had not been accomplished since 1995-97.
How significant is this? In the seven years after Lloyd Carr retired, Rich Rodriguez and Brady Hoke combined for a 46-42 record and 1-6 mark against the Buckeyes. It took more time than expected, but Harbaugh turned Michigan into a contender again. That is indisputable.
There is a cost to that success. Harbaugh will be in the purview of the NCAA for the foreseeable future, and the in-person scouting and sign-stealing scandal could carry further punishment in the future. Pete Carroll – who had a 97-19 record at USC from 2001-09 and left before NCAA sanctions hit the program – is an apt comparison. On Oct. 29, Rapoport reported the NFL would not be a “safe harbor” for Harbaugh to escape discipline, but likely will not be a deal-breaker if an NFL team decides to pursue Harbaugh.
The provision in the contract preventing Harbaugh from entertaining NFL jobs also is a tough sell. How do you tell Harbaugh what not to do? He interviewed with the Vikings after the 2021 season.
If Harbaugh stays at Michigan, then it has to come with the understanding more NCAA punishment could be coming. The contract extension, however, suggests Michigan is making the effort to keep Harbaugh in Ann Arbor. If Harbaugh left Michigan at this point, then he would still be beloved by the fanbase – who could target the NCAA instead.
That worked for Carroll.
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Will Jim Harbaugh leave Michigan for the NFL in 2024?
Harbaugh hasn't coached in the NFL since 2014, so it is easy to forget how successful he was with the San Francisco 49ers.
Consider this statistic. He has the fifth-highest winning percentage all time among NFL coaches with at least four years of experience. A look at the company in that discussion.
| COACH | W | L | TIE | PCT |
| Guy Chamberlain (1922-27) | 58 | 16 | 7 | .784 |
| John Madden (1969-78) | 103 | 32 | 7 | .759 |
| Vince Lombardi (1959-69) | 96 | 34 | 6 | .738 |
| George Allen (1966-77) | 116 | 47 | 5 | .712 |
| Jim Harbaugh (2011-14) | 44 | 19 | 1 | .695 |
When you're in the same sentence as Lombardi and Madden, then that is the ultimate tease with Harbaugh. He can win in the NFL – much like his brother John – who has a 158-98 record with the Ravens since 2008.
The Raiders, Bears and Chargers are the most frequent teams mentioned when it comes to Harbaugh. Las Vegas' opening might be filled by interim coach Antonio Pierce. Chicago could retain Matt Eberlus, and Bears president and former Big Ten commissioner Kevin Warren would be a potential roadblock for Harbaugh going to Chicago.
The Chargers' job, however, makes sense. Coach Brandon Staley and general manager Tom Telesco were fired this season. Owner Dean Spanos could take a chance on Harbaugh, who spent his final two seasons as a player with the Chargers in 1999-2000. Harbaugh could win with a franchise built around quarterback Justin Herbert, who is 30-32 as a NFL starter the last four seasons. It also puts Harbaugh back on the West Coast, where he lived and coached at various stops from 2002-14 before coming to Michigan. That is the job to watch, and if Harbaugh were to leave it would be the most logical landing spot.
Will the Rose Bowl Game impact Jim Harbaugh's decision?
Black Monday in the NFL falls on Jan. 8 – the same day as the College Football Playoff championship game at NRG Stadium in Houston.
A loss would not change the time-table for Harbaugh much, but it could lead to increased speculation the longer he doesn't sign the extension from Michigan. It also would amplify Harbaugh's bowl record (1-6) and struggles against the SEC.
If Michigan beats Alabama, then Harbaugh likely would fall back on the usual deflections about his future during the lead-up for the CFP championship game. In other words, we won't learn much until after Jan. 8.
Would a Wolverines' victory change that dynamic? With Harbaugh, unpredictability is the norm. He has been emotionally invested in this team, particularly with team leaders such as a J.J. McCarthy and Blake Corum and assistant coach Sherrone Moore, who was the acting coach in Harbaugh's absence for the final three games of the regular season. Moore would be the most logical candidate if Harbaugh left for the NFL, too. He also could sign the extension tomorrow and we would not be surprised. That is the Harbaugh experience.
All of these scenarios are in play leading up to the Rose Bowl, and Harbaugh's future is 50-50 in either direction.