The race for the College Football Playoff will be in full swing once the initial rankings drop on Tuesday.
Regardless of how the first rankings shake out, they shouldn’t be ignored. History shows that, since the Playoff's birth in 2014, the first set of rankings carry a great deal of weight towards which teams make the Playoff.
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The tables below show each of the CFP participants over the previous five seasons, their place in the initial rankings, their records thereafter and the number of AP Top 25 wins after the first rankings' release.
2018 Playoff rankings
| Team | Initial CFP rank | Remaining W-L | AP Top 25 wins |
| Alabama | 1 | 5-0 (3) | 3 |
| Clemson | 2 | 5-0 | 1 |
| Notre Dame | 4 | 4-0 | 1 |
| Oklahoma | 7 | 5-0 | 2 |
2017 Playoff rankings
| Team | Initial CFP rank | Remaining W-L | AP Top 25 wins |
| Georgia | 1 | 4-1 | 1 |
| Alabama | 2 | 3-1 | 2 |
| Clemson | 4 | 5-0 | 2 |
| Oklahoma | 5 | 5-0 | 3 |
2016 Playoff rankings
| Team | Initial CFP rank | Remaining W-L | AP Top 25 wins |
| Alabama | 1 | 5-0 | 3 |
| Clemson | 2 | 4-1 | 1 |
| Washington | 5 | 4-1 | 2 |
| Ohio State | 6 | 4-0 | 2 |
2015 Playoff rankings
| Team | Initial CFP rank | Remaining W-L | AP Top 25 wins |
| Clemson | 1 | 5-0 | 2 |
| Alabama | 4 | 5-0 | 3 |
| Michigan State | 7 | 4-1 | 2 |
| Oklahoma | 15 | 4-0 | 3 |
2014 Playoff rankings
| Team | Initial CFP rank | Remaining W-L | AP Top 25 wins |
| Florida State | 2 | 6-0 | 1 |
| Oregon | 5 | 5-0 | 2 |
| Alabama | 6 | 5-0 | 4 |
| Ohio State | 16 | 6-0 | 2 |
To begin, only two teams ranked outside the top seven in the initial CFP rankings have ever made the Playoff: 2014 Ohio State (ranked 16th) and 2015 Oklahoma (ranked 15th). The Sooners went 4-0 after the initial rankings with wins over No. 4 Baylor, No. 9 Oklahoma State and No. 11 TCU. The Buckeyes, meanwhile, finished the season with six straight wins, including victories against No. 7 Michigan State and No. 11 Wisconsin.
Quality victories are hugely important from here on out. In fact, every team that has made the Payoff has recorded at least one AP Top 25 victory after the initial CFP rankings. Only three teams have made the Playoff without recording a win over an AP top-15 team after the initial CFP poll, and each of those three teams was ranked either first or second in the initial Playoff rankings. In order to climb into the Playoff picture and remain there, you need a strong resume
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As far as losses go, multiple defeats all but seal any hope of competing for a national championship. No team has ever lost multiple games after the initial rankings and made the Playoff. Only five of the 20 teams to compete in the Playoff have lost a game after the initial rankings. Two of those five losses were against top-10 AP teams, two were by just one point and the last was Washington's 26-13 loss to USC in 2016.
With these key facts in mind, here's a basic checklist for reaching the CFP:
- Land in the top 16 in the initial CFP rankings
- Lose no more than one game the remainder of the season (unless you already have a loss)
- Beat at least one AP Top 25 team
Not counting conference championship games, here are each of the top 16 teams in the current AP poll ordered by remaining games against AP top-25 teams:
- Three: Minnesota (No. 5 Penn State, No. 16 Wisconsin, No. 18 Iowa)
- Two: Alabama (No. 1 LSU, No. 12 Auburn); Ohio State (No. 5 Penn State, No. 14 Michigan); Penn State (No. 3 Ohio State, No. 13 Minnesota); Auburn (No. 6 Georgia, No. 2 Alabama); Wisconsin (No. 18 Iowa, No. 13 Minnesota)
- One: LSU (No. 2 Alabama); Clemson (No. 22 Wake Forest); Georgia (No. 12 Auburn); Oklahoma (No. 11 Baylor); Baylor (No. 9 Oklahoma); Michigan (No. 3 Ohio State); Notre Dame (No. 25 Navy)
- Zero: Oregon; Utah; Florida
Knowing what we know about two-loss teams, we can rule out Florida, Auburn, Michigan, Notre Dame and Wisconsin. What does this mean for the remaining hopefuls? Let's take a look at some notable teams.
Minnesota (8-0) immediately stands out from the pack. The Gophers have climbed up the AP Top 25 but have yet to beat a top-25 team all year and now have three such opponents over the next four weeks. If Minnesota has just one loss after the conclusion of the Big Ten title game, it will certainly have a strong case for a Playoff bid.
Clemson (9-0) has faced plenty of scrutiny this season regarding its soft schedule. The Tigers started the year No. 1 in the AP Top 25 but have slipped to No. 4, despite remaining undefeated. The defending champs likely have just one remaining ranked game all season, which is a meeting with No. 22 Wake Forest. It would be shocking to see Clemson out of the Playoff if it wins out, but a slip-up could put the Tigers on the outside looking in.
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Each of the top three teams can probably afford a loss and still feel confident about their Playoff chances. That's especially true of No. 1 LSU and No. 2 Alabama, who play on Saturday. No. 3 Ohio State, meanwhile, still has games against Penn State and Michigan, as well as a likely appearance in the Big Ten championship game. The Buckeyes' path to the Playoff figures to be more challenging than the Tigers' or Crimson Tide's.
The Pac-12's inability to crash the Playoff party in recent years will continue to be under the microscope the rest of the season. Oregon and Utah are both viable threats, but neither team is currently scheduled to play a ranked opponent the rest of the regular season. If either squad wins out (they are currently projected to play each other in the Pac-12 championship game), that could be enough to warrant a Playoff bid.
In early November, it's next to impossible to predict how the dominoes will fall the remainder of the season. What we do know is how teams have fared after the initial CFP poll. And that can provide insight into what the rest of the season might look like.