Women's March Madness bracket predictions 4.0: Projecting the field of 68 for 2024 NCAA Tournament

03-13-2024
12 min read
Getty Images

Will there be any more drama before Selection Sunday?  

This Sunday had more than enough. Iowa rallied from an 11-point deficit in the Big Ten championship game for a thrilling overtime victory. Caitlin Clark played the starring role once again. South Carolina beat LSU 79-72 in the SEC championship game, but after six players were ejected in an ugly incident. USC and Notre Dame also won conference tournament championships in the Pac-12 and ACC, respectively. 

Ten of the Women’s NCAA Tournament bids have been decided. The Big 12 tournament championship is next, and the field of 68 will be filled out in the next six days. 

This year's Final Four is April 5-7 at the Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse in Cleveland. 

We will break down the NCAA women's basketball tournament field every day ahead of Selection Sunday. A look at the latest Field of 68: 

Last four in: Mississippi State, Vanderbilt, Arizona, Miami. 

+ - Clinched automatic bid
* - Projected automatic bid

NCAA women's tournament Field of 68 projections

No. 1 seeds 

+South Carolina (32-0, 16-0 SEC) 

The Gamecocks remained unbeaten through an eventful SEC tournament run. Kamilla Cardoso’s buzzer-beating 3-pointer gave South Carolina a 74-73 victory against Tennessee on Saturday. Cardoso was ejected, however, from the 79-72 victory against LSU in the SEC championship. Cardoso is suspended for the Gamecocks’ first-round tournament game. 

MORE: SEC brawl leads to ejections, suspension 

+Iowa (29-4, 15-3 Big Ten) 

Caitlin Clark scored 30 of her 34 points in the second half of a 94-89 victory against Nebraska for the Big Ten championship. That is going to clinch a No. 1 seed for the Hawkeyes and likely land them in the Albany regional. Will Iowa get a Final Four rematch with South Carolina? The opportunity is there.  

MORE: Caitlin Clark poses like Kobe after Big Ten title

Stanford (28-5, 15-3 Pac-12)

Will Tara VanDerveer's team still get the Portland regional despite a 74-61 loss to USC in the Pac-12 championship. We think Stanford will get a No. 1 seed either way. Star forward Cameron Brink averaged 16.7 points, 12 rebounds and three assists in the Pac-12 tournament. 

+USC (26-5, 13-5 Pac-12) 

USC won the Pac-12 tournament championship — and that was with JuJu Watkins scoring just nine points. The Pac-12 should have two No. 1 seeds as a result – unless Texas forces the issue in the Big 12 tournament. 

No. 2 seeds 

+Texas (30-4, 14-4 Big 12) 

The Longhorns made their case for a No. 1 seed with a Big 12 championship victory agianst Iowa State, but we think they will stick as the highest No. 2 seed. Four Texas players average double-figures, led by Madison Booker (16.6 ppg.) 

LSU (28-5, 13-3 SEC) 

LSU lost to South Carolina in the SEC championship game – and it is unclear if any players will be suspended after a bench-clearing scuffle with the Gamecocks. Kim Mulkey still has a team capable of defending last year’s national championship. Angel Reese has 12 consecutive double-doubles heading into the tournament. 

MORE: Kim Mulkey makes wild statement in aftermath of fight

Ohio State (25-5, 16-2 Big Ten) 

The Buckeyes were a projected No. 1 seed after winning the Big Ten regular-season championship, but a loss to Iowa in the season finale and a 82-61 loss to Maryland in the Big Ten quarterfinals will drop Ohio State to the No. 2 line. 

UCLA (25-6, 13-5 Pac-12) 

The Bruins flirted with a No. 1 seed, but an 80-70 loss to USC will keep them on this line. Center Lauren Betts averaged 12.5 points and 12.5 rebounds in the Pac-12 tournament. She will be the key to a tournament run. 

No. 3 seeds 

+UConn (28-5, 18-0 Big East) 

Could UConn creep up to a No. 2 seed? The Huskies won a fourth straight Big East tournament championship against Georgetown on Monday. That is Geno Auriemma's 22nd conference title between two stints in the Big East. 

+Notre Dame (23-6, 13-5 ACC) 

The Irish have won eight straight games – and a 55-51 victory against NC State in the ACC tournament championship game means Notre Dame could be considered for a No. 2 seed. Freshman Hannah Hidalgo averaged 19.3 points per game in the ACC tournament. 

Oregon State (24-7, 12-6 Pac-12) 

The Beavers are 4-4 in their last eight games – though three of those losses were to either Stanford or USC. Forward Raegan Beers averaged 22 points and 10 rebounds in two Pac-12 tournament games. 

NC State (27-6, 13-5 ACC) 

The Wolfpack are a solid No. 3 despite losing to the Irish in the ACC championship game. NC State was a first-round exit in the NCAA tournament last year. Will Wes Moore get this team back to the Sweet 16? 

No. 4 seeds 

Virginia Tech (24-7, 14-4 ACC) 

Elizabeth Kitley (knee) missed the ACC tournament, and the Hokies lost three of their last four games. That makes another Final Four run much tougher with the drop down to the No. 4 line. A week off should help Kitley – who averaged 22.8 ppg. this season.  

*Gonzaga (30-3, 16-0 West Coast) 

Gonzaga lost to Portland 67-66 in the West Coast Conference tournament championship, but the Bulldogs appear safe as an at-large bid no matter what happens. Portland won the WCC tournament last year. 

Indiana (24-5, 15-3 Big Ten) 

The Hoosiers were an upset victim in the Big Ten tournament with a 69-56 loss to Michigan. Indiana could slip a line as a result, but we’ll trust the Big Ten strength of conference keeps the Hoosiers here. 

Kansas State (25-7, 13-5 Big 12) 

It's a coin flip here with Oklahoma and Colorado, and the committee could just take the Buffaloes. Kansas State, however, had the highest Net rating of the three. Center Ayoka Lee averages 20.1 ppg. and 8.4 rpg. a

Rest of field 

No. 5 seeds

Oklahoma (22-9, 15-3 Big 12) 

Colorado (22-9, 11-7 Pac-12)

Syracuse (23-7, 13-5 ACC)

Utah (22-10, 11-7 Pac-12) 

No. 6 seeds 

Baylor (24-7, 12-6 Big 12) 

Creighton (25-5, 15-3 Big East) 

Louisville (24-9, 12-6 ACC) 

West Virginia (24-7, 12-6 Big 12) 

No. 7 seeds 

Duke (20-11, 11-7 ACC) 

Nebraska (22-11, 11-7 Big Ten)

Ole Miss (23-8, 12-4 SEC) 

Tennessee (19-12, 10-6 SEC) 

No. 8 seeds 

+UNLV (30-2, 17-1 Mountain West) 

Michigan State (22-8, 12-6 Big Ten) 

North Carolina (19-12, 11-7 ACC) 

Scroll to Continue with Content

Iowa State (20-10, 12-6 Big 12) 

No. 9 seeds 

Florida State (23-10, 12-6 ACC) 

Alabama (23-9, 10-6 SEC)

Kansas (19-12, 11-7 Big 12) 

Princeton (23-4, 13-1 Ivy) 

No. 10 seeds 

*Middle Tennessee State (26-4, 16-0 C-USA) 

Marquette (22-8, 11-7 Big East) 

Maryland (19-13, 9-9 Big Ten) 

Auburn (20-11, 8-8 SEC) 

No. 11 seeds

Michigan (20-13, 9-9 Big Ten)

+Green Bay (27-6, 17-3 Horizon)

**Mississippi State (21-11, 8-8 SEC) 

**Vanderbilt (22-9, 9-7, SEC) 

**Miami, Fla. (19-12, 8-10 ACC) 

**Arizona (17-15, 8-10 Pac-12) 

No. 12 seeds

+Richmond (29-5, 16-2 Atlantic 10) 

+South Dakota State (27-5, 16-0) 

*Florida Gulf Coast (28-4, 16-0 Atlantic Sun) 

*Toledo (26-4, 17-1 MAC) 

No. 13 seeds

*Stony Brook (25-3, 16-2 CAA) 

*Drake (26-5, 19-1 MVC) 

*Fairfield (29-1, 20-0 MAAC)

+*Marshall (26-6, 17-1 Sun Belt) 

No. 14 seeds

+Eastern Washington (29-5, 16-2 Big Sky) 

+Chattanooga (28-4, 13-1 Southern) 

*California Baptist (26-3, 18-2 WAC) 

*Jackson State (24-6, 18-0 SWAC) 

No. 15 seeds 

+Portland (21-12, 10-6 West Coast) 

+Rice (19-14, 9-9 AAC) 

*Maine (23-9, 14-2 America East) 

*Norfolk State (25-5, 13-1 MEAC) 

No. 16 seeds

*Lamar (24-5, 17-1 Southland) 

*Hawaii (20-9, 17-3 Big West) 

**Holy Cross (18-12, 11-7 Patriot) 

**Sacred Heart (22-9, 14-1 Northeast) 

+**UT-Martin (16-16, 11-7 OVC) 

+**Presbyterian (20-14, 8-8 Big South)

First Four Out 

Cleveland State (29-5, 18-2 Horizon) 

The Vikings might be left out after a loss in the Horizon League championship game. This will be an uncomfortable bubble for the Vikings.  

Texas A&M (19-12, 6-10 SEC) 

The Aggies could slip in after knocking off Mississippi State 72-56 in the SEC tournament, but a 6-10 conference record might be too much to overcome. 

Penn State (19-12, 9-9 Big Ten) 

The Nittany Lions lost 95-62 to Iowa in the Big Ten tournament. Penn State does have a Net rating of No. 26 – the highest of any team not in the tournament. Is that enough to supplant Arizona for the last spot? 

Columbia (22-5, 13-1 Ivy) 

The Lions are a No. 2 seed in the Ivy League tournament, and they did beat Princeton 67-65 on Feb. 24. The Ivy League, however, likely won’t get two bids.