Who is the one school that will make – or break – your 2024 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament bracket?
Kentucky, of course. The Wildcats open SEC tournament play Friday against Texas A&M or Ole Miss at 7 p.m. ET. The Wildcats are the No. 2 seed in the SEC – and they have a chance to work up to a No. 2 seed in the Big Dance.
Kentucky is arguably the hottest team in the country right now – one that enters the postseason on a five-game winning streak that includes victories against No. 13 Alabama and No. 4 Tennessee. Kentucky coach John Calipari has this team playing championship-level basketball at the right time.
So what's the problem? A defensive statistical trend that dates back to all but one national champion since 2002 might hold the Wildcats back in the postseason.
Can Kentucky simply score through that trend? It's possible, and the main reason why this Kentucky team will make or break your bracket.
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Why Kentucky's offense will make your bracket
The Wildcats enter the SEC tournament with the No. 2 scoring offense in the country. Kentucky averages 89.5 points per game – a shade behind Alabama at 90.8 ppg. The Wildcats beat the Crimson Tide 117-95 on Feb. 24.
In the five-game winning streak, Kentucky is averaging 99.4 points per game. Eight different players have scored double-figures in that streak, and that includes four players averaging more than 10 points per game.
Kentucky has scored 90 points or more in 16 games – and they have scored 100 points or more in six games.
In the last five games, Antonio Reeves averages 20.2 ppg and Justin Edwards is at 19 ppg. Reed Sheppard (17 ppg.) and Rob Dillingham (12.8 ppg.) are averaging double-digits in the same stretch. D.J. Wagner and Tre Mitchell average 10 or more points per game. Mitchell is still dealing with shoulder and back injuries.
The Wildcats have so many scoring options – and Dillingham, Sheppard, Wagner and Edwards all are potential first-round picks in the 2024 NBA Draft. Kentucky has the right mix of high-level scoring and NBA talent that is equipped to make a deep NCAA tournament run.
Why Kentucky's defense will break your bracket
Yeah, but …
Everyone knows "the stat" that comes with defense. KenPom.com measures adjusted defensive efficiency – which measures points allowed per 100 possessions. Since 2001-02, all but one national champion has ranked in the top-20 in adjusted defensive efficiency. UConn (90.9) ranked seventh last season.
Baylor (91.1) ranked No. 22 in 2020-21 – a season that was still impacted by COVID-19. The Bears finished 28-2 and beat Gonzaga 86-70 in the NCAA men's basketball championship game. The Bulldogs led the nation at 91 points per game. That's our way of saying the Bears' defense was more than good enough to win a national title.
The Wildcats (102.3) rank 96th this season – a stat that suggests Kentucky would have to buck that trend to win a national championship. The Wildcats have allowed 90 or more points in six games this season (including 100 or more points twice) – and they are 3-3 in those games.
That is the 50-50 debate when trying to assess Kentucky's value heading into the NCAA Tournament. Yes, Kentucky can outscore anybody in the tournament. But against a high-level team, will they be able to get enough stops in crunch time?
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Which teams rank in the top 20 in defensive efficiency?
Here is a look at the top-20 teams in adjusted defensive efficiency heading into the conference tournament weekend, according to KenPom.com:
| RANK | TEAM | RATING | PROJ. SEED |
| 1 | Houston | 88.2 | 1 |
| 2 | Iowa State | 89.4 | 2 |
| 3 | Tennessee | 91.2 | 1 |
| 4 | Rutgers | 92.2 | out |
| 5 | North Carolina | 93.3 | 2 |
| 6 | Auburn | 93.4 | 5 |
| 7 | Virginia | 93.7 | 11 |
| 8 | San Diego State | 94.1 | 6 |
| 9 | Maryland | 94.3 | out |
| 10 | Kansas | 94.3 | 4 |
| 11 | Michigan State | 94.3 | 10 |
| 12 | UConn | 94.9 | 1 |
| 13 | UCF | 95 | out |
| 14 | Villanova | 95.2 | First 4 out |
| 15 | Saint Mary's | 95.4 | 7 |
| 16 | Arizona | 95.7 | 2 |
| 17 | Providence | 96 | out |
| 18 | Cincinnati | 96.1 | out |
| 19 | Kansas State | 96.3 | out |
| 20 | Marquette | 96.4 | 2 |
Bubble teams such as Cincinnati, Kansas State, Providence and Villanova are still in the discussion because of this metric.
Every projected No. 1 and No. 2 seed except Purdue is on that list. The Boilermakers (96.8) are No. 21. Projected No. 3 seeds Creighton (97.0) and Duke (97.2) rank No. 22 and No. 23, respectively.
Baylor (101.1) – the other No. 3 seed – ranks No. 71. If Kentucky stays on the No. 3 seed line or moves up – then they would be the worst adjusted defensive efficiency team among the teams on the top-three seed lines.
Will Kentucky beat defensive trend in NCAA Tournament?
Despite that defensive trends, there are three trends about Kentucky we do like heading into March Madness:
Free-throw shooting
The Wildcats rank 19th in the NCAA in free-throw percentage at 77.4%. Of teams projected with seeds of No. 4 or higher, only Alabama (78.6%) and Creighton (77.5%) have better team free-throw percentages.
Reeves (88%), Sheppard (84.1%) and Zvonimir Ivsic (83.3%) all are outstanding free-throw shooters.
Kentucky shot 70.6% last season and 72.1% in 2021-22 – seasons in which the Wildcats did not get out of the first weekend in the NCAA tournament. This team is more-equipped to close the door.
Kentucky is battle-tested
Kentucky statistician Corey Price had an interesting take on this year’s team and how that correlates to the Wildcats’ past national championship teams:
The Wildcats had road losses at South Carolina, LSU and Texas A&M – so the statistic does have to be taken into context. Still, Kentucky was 5-2 against ranked teams this season – with an 89-84 loss to Kansas and a 103-92 loss to Tennessee.
The Wildcats beat North Carolina 87-83 on Dec. 16 on a neutral floor. The Wildcats and Tar Heels both will be popular picks to win the NCAA tournament because of their blue-blood nature and high-scoring appeal.
Kentucky can play with anybody in the country.
MORE: Watch the 2024 NCAA Tournament with Sling TV
When was the last time Kentucky made Final Four?
Kentucky has not won the SEC tournament since 2018 – a run in which they won four straight from 2015-18. The Wildcats are a No. 2 seed this year and could get a rubber-match with Tennessee in the SEC championship game.
The Wildcats have not advanced past the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament since 2018-19, though the 2019-20 team was 25-6 before the tournament was canceled because of the COVID-19 epidemic.
Calipari has taken Kentucky to the Final Four a total of four times, and their seed varied. Kentucky was a No. 1 seed in 2012 and 2015, a No. 4 seed in 2011 and a No. 8 seed in 2014.
This year’s team likely will be a No. 2 or No. 3 seed in the NCAA Tournament, and it seems ready to make that run.