Your monthly reminder for the TSN15 power rankings …
We’re ranking teams from 1 to 12. Why only 12? Because that’s how many teams make the playoffs this year — six in the AL, six in the NL. So, yes, we’ll have six from each league in the top 12, then chat about three more teams that are intriguing (for reasons good and bad).
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Let’s jump in.
1. Braves, 70-39
Projected spot: NL East champs
Last month: 1
Baseball’s best team just keeps doing amazing things. Matt Olson can’t stop hitting home runs. Spencer Strider can’t stop striking out batters at a record pace. After slow starts, Michael Harris II and Austin Riley have spent the past month-plus hitting like, well, Michael Harris II and Austin Riley. Ronald Acuña Jr. is already the first NL big leaguer with 50-plus stolen bases in a season since 2017 and it’s just early August (and, oh yeah, he has 25 homers, too).
One more “oh yeah” for you … oh, yeah, Max Fried — y’know, the club’s best starting pitcher — just returned from a long stint on the IL and threw six shutout innings.
2. Orioles, 70-42
Projected spot: AL East champs
Last month: 3
Jack Flaherty didn’t win the trade deadline headline wars, but he feels like a sneaky perfect fit for these Orioles. Injuries have sapped Flaherty of some of the stuff he had in 2019 — when he had a 0.93 ERA with only 50 hits allowed in 106 1/3 innings covering his final 16 starts of the season — but he’s ultra-competitive and showed in his Baltimore debut that he isn’t afraid of the big stage. His ERA in 18 career August starts is a tidy 1.42, by the way.
3. Rangers, 66-46
Projected spot: AL West champs
Last month: 5
When you’ve already pushed most of your chips into the pot before the flop, you really have no choice but to keep betting, especially when your hand is a potential winner. All the Rangers did heading into the trade deadline was deal for Max Scherzer, the future Hall of Famer who craves the competition of October, and Jordan Montgomery, one of the steadiest lefty starters in the bigs.
4. Rays, 68-46
Projected spot: AL wild card
Last month: 2
The Rays are just 11-18 since the start of July, a record that’s better than just two teams in the AL: the A’s and White Sox. That’s not good company to keep for teams with World Series aspirations. They are coming off a good road trip, though, winning series in Houston, New York and Detroit. Up next: six games at home, vs. the Cardinals and Guardians.
5. Astros, 64-49
Projected spot: AL wild card
Last month: 9
The Orioles, Rays and Rangers might have better records than Houston, but if forced to pick a favorite to win the American League pennant right now, it would be hard to pick against the Astros. They brought back Justin Verlander — he gave them seven strong innings in his re-debut with the club — and the lineup is back to full health, with Yordan Alvarez and Jose Altuve back off the IL. It makes a big difference.
6. Dodgers, 64-46
Projected spot: NL West champs
Last month: 8
The Dodgers have gained control of their division — helped by the Diamondbacks’ collapse — but they didn’t make the type of major impact move at the trade deadline that their fans were hoping for. No Ohtani, no Arenado, just a couple of old friends and improvements around the edges. It should be more than enough to win the division at this point.
7. Blue Jays, 63-50
Projected spot: AL wild card
Last month: NR
Not many teams had as good of a weekend as the Jays, who swept the Red Sox — at Fenway Park — to not only keep pace in the AL wild-card race, but also deal a huge blow to Boston’s hopes of pulling off a sneaky miracle. Jose Berrios is in the midst of one of his best stretches with the club, posting a 2.31 ERA in six starts since the beginning of July.
8. Phillies, 61-51
Projected spot: NL wild card
Last month: NR
These Phillies feel a lot like last year’s Phillies.
9. Giants, 61-51
Projected spot: NL wild card
Last month: 7
It’s been a bit of a roller coaster for the Giants since the start of July. They lost five of six to open that month, then won seven in a row. They followed that up by dropping six games in a row, but they rebounded from that debacle by winning seven of nine — including two walk-off Ws — but you know what came next. Yeah, they were swept by the A’s in a two-game set across the bay in Oakland. Sheesh.
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10. Brewers, 60-53
Projected spot: NL Central champs
Last month: 11
The Brewers owned a 1 1/2 game lead in the NL Central after a win against the Reds on July 26, but since then they’ve lost seven of 10 games. Of course, the Reds have been equally as futile, so the Brewers still own that 1 1/2 game lead heading into this week. That did leave the door open for another team to tie Cincy in the division standings, though.
11. Cubs, 58-54
Projected spot: NL wild card
Last month: NR
Who saw this coming? Certainly not the Cubs fans who spent every waking moment on social media ripping the failures of their favorite team from about mid-April to mid-June. But the offense is solid, the pitching’s better than you’ve noticed — Justin Steele is legit — and, well, the division (and league) offers opportunity. It’s nice to be in the thick of everything at just four games over .500, isn’t it?
12. Twins, 59-54
Projected spot: AL Central champs
Last month: 12
Maybe it’s fitting that, in the “race” for the AL Central title — aka, the Who Can Finish .500 Challenge — the Twins won the trade deadline because they didn’t really do anything, just swapping largely ineffective relievers with the Marlins. That was “better” than what Cleveland did, trading away its best starter (Aaron Civale) and one of the only three hitters on the roster with double-digit home runs (Josh Bell).
Three to discuss
Mariners, 60-52: The M’s are 10-2 in their past dozen games and, at this point, seem like the only team currently on the outside looking in capable of breaking through and claiming a playoff spot. It’s probably not a coincidence that, during that stretch, Julio Rodriguez is batting .359 with six doubles, four homers, 11 RBIs and 12 runs scored. When J-Rod goes, Seattle goes.
Diamondbacks, 57-56: With a win on July 1, the Diamondbacks were 16 games over .500 and owned a three-game lead in the NL West. Since then, they’re 7-22. It’s been pretty brutal. Their division hopes are gone (8 1/2 out) but they’re still solidly in the wild-card hunt if they can right the ship.
Angels, 56-57: Maybe the Angels are still building the drama and tension before making their dramatic Ohtani-led run to the playoffs. If so, they’re doing a bang-up job. Or, maybe, they’re just not a good team. Still.