One of the very best parts of every baseball season is watching the players who exceed expectations. They’re the guys who, for whatever reason — could be injuries, could be youth, could be lack of opportunity — haven’t been able to live up to their potential.
Until they do.
Think back to last year. Who thought Andrés Giménez would finish sixth in the AL MVP voting. And who thought that Spencer Strider would turn in on of the best strikeout seasons ever by a right-handed pitcher? Who would have guessed that Nestor Cortes would become one of the most reliable starters in the bigs? Not you, probably. But here’s a bet that Andrés, Spencer and Nestor knew what they were capable of.
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So we’re going to take a spin around the majors, looking for one player from each team capable of, as they say, taking it up a notch and becoming a star — or, a bigger star — in 2023.
Today: The American League Central
Royals: Vinnie Pasquantino
Pasquantino was brilliant last year, but not enough people outside of Kansas City noticed. The Royals were already 20 games under .500 by the time he made his debut in late June. He struggled a bit out of the gate, with an average under .200 in his first 18 games, but once he adjusted, he thrived. In his final 54 games of the season, Pasquantino hit .328 and a .406 on-base percentage and .904 OPS, with eight homers, nine doubles and 23 RBIs.
And he quickly emerged as a leader on the young Royals team. With a full season of Pasquatch at first base and Bobby Witt Jr. — has any heralded rookie ever had a quieter 20-homer, 30-stolen base season? — at shortstop, where he belongs, the Royals are in good hands. Don’t be surprised to see either or both of them on the AL All-Star squad in Seattle come July,
White Sox: Luis Robert
Yes, I still believe. At some point, Robert is going to stay healthy, play up to his massive potential for a full year and challenge for an MVP award. White Sox fans might feel like they’ve been waiting for this forever, but he’s only 25. He finished second in the AL Rookie of the Year voting in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, then hit .338 with a 154 OPS+ in 2021, but he only played 68 games because of injuries. So 2022 was supposed to be his arrival as a star, but it didn’t happen then, either. He spent more time on the IL — played only 98 games — and when he was in the lineup, he wasn’t as productive. The average fell from .338 to .284 and the OPS+ fell from 154 to 109.
So, folks, this has to be the year. He’s healthy. He’s motivated. He’s kick-starting the season by playing for Cuba in the World Baseball Classic. He has the talent and the tools to turn in a 40-homer, 20-stolen base season. Did I mention he won a Gold Glove in 2020? This will be the year he lives up to expectations. And if not, I’ll probably say the same thing next spring, too.
Tigers: Riley Greene
The options here are plenty, especially on the hitting side. Lots of guys had down 2021 seasons. As you know, an OPS+ of exactly 100 is league average. An OPS+ of 93 would be 7 percent worse than league average, while an OPS+ of 115 is 15 percent better. Make sense? The Tigers had 15 players with at least 125 plate appearances last year. Know how many had an OPS+ of 100 or better? One. That’s it. Eric Haase checked in at 115, and next on the list was Greene, at 99. Every other team had at least two, and 20 had at least seven. The Tigers’ team OPS+ was 84, ahead of only Cincinnati (83) and Oakland (82).
Don’t be at all surprised to see Greene zoom past that 100 level. Way past it. He’s an immensely talented 22-year-old, a left-handed batter who actually hit better against major league lefties last year (.303 average, .747 OPS) than right-handed pitchers (.232, .656). He was drafted with the No. 5 overall pick out of high school in 2019, then missed a year of competition during the pandemic in 2020 with the minors shut down. In Double-A and Triple-A in 2021, he had a .387 on-base percentage and .921 OPS in 124 games, to go with 24 homers and 16 stolen bases. He spent much of 2022 with the Tigers, playing 93 games, with five homers and 42 RBIs. Did we mention he was just 21 last year? That he’s only 22 now, and played only 181 games in the minors before last year? He's a potential All-Star this year.
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Guardians: Oscar Gonzalez
The Guardians don’t have as many options here, mostly because the 2021 season was one of breakthroughs all over the place — Andres Gimenez finishing sixth in the AL MVP voting, Triston McKenzie posting a 2.96 ERA in 191 1/3 innings, Cal Quantrill throwing up a 3.38 ERA in 32 starts, Steven Kwan going an entire season without striking out (OK, it only seemed like that), Josh Naylor hitting 20 homers, and the list goes on. Don’t be surprised if any of those guys turn in equally as good or better seasons in 2023.
Gonzalez busted out in the postseason, coming up with big hits in dramatic moments — especially that 15th-inning walk-off homer that sealed the Wild Card Series win against the Rays. He’s only 25, but it’s been a long path for Gonzalez to the majors. He’s been in the Cleveland organization since 2015, when he was a 17 year old playing for the club’s Dominican Summer League team. Fun fact: He finished the 2016, 2018, 2019 and 2021 seasons with a combined batting average in the .290s, so maybe it wasn’t surprising that he finished his first MLB season — 91 games for the Guardians — with a .296 average.
Twins: Max Kepler
Can we really use a guy who’s gotten MVP votes in the past, with a 36-home run season? I guess we make the rules, so, yeah, it’s Kepler, for this reason: Few hitters will benefit more from the banning of defensive shifts than Kepler, a left-handed pull hitter who grew frustrated last year watching would-be hits die in gloves far too often. And, yeah, the broken toe didn’t help, either.
With an offseason to rest and recuperate, he’s looking at 2023 as a fresh start. And with shifts a thing of the past, it’s a fresh start on top of a fresh start.