The first week of May is officially here, and that means it's time for "The Run for the Roses." So grab a mint julep and, if you're the gambling type, get ready to place some bets on the 2023 Kentucky Derby.
The Kentucky Derby is set to be just an 18-horse race in 2023 thanks to an unusually high number of scratches. That will make it difficult to predict even for seasoned bettors, but even so, there are always a few colts that stand out among the crowd.
Once again, the Derby — a 1 1/4-mile-long race — has attracted a group of excellent horses. Plenty possess top speed, but few are true pace-setters. Trainers tend to value horses with good stamina and closing burst in the race given its length, so that could set up for yet another exciting finish.
Who should be on your card during the 2023 Kentucky Derby? The Sporting News breaks down the odds and best bets to win this year's run for the roses.
LIVE: Kentucky Derby race updates, results, highlights from 2023 Triple Crown race
Kentucky Derby odds 2023
Forte (+300) opened as the favorite to win the 2023 Kentucky Derby, but he was later scratched on the day of the race. That means that Tapit Trice (+500) and Angel of Empire (+800) are the favorites to win the race, as they were the only other horses with better than 10-1 odds to win the coveted first jewel of the Triple Crown.
Tapit Trice's odds are of note considering that he is running from the No. 5 gate. That post position has produced 10 Kentucky Derby winners, the most of any gate in the history of the event.
Meanwhile, there are four horses that opened tied with the longest odds to win it all at 50-1. They are Reincarnate, Sun Thunder, Raise Cain and Continuar (the latter of whom was scratched Thursday).
Below are the full opening odds and starting gates for the Kentucky Derby, which came down courtesy of Churchill Downs on Monday after the post position draw.
Notes: The original No. 10 horse, Practical Move, was scratched from starting due to an elevated temperature. He was replaced by the No. 21 horse Cyclone Mischief. Additionally, No. 19 horse Lord Miles was scratched after his trainer, Saffie Joseph Jr., was suspended by Churchill Downs after the death of two horses under his supervision. Lord Miles will be replaced in the field by No. 22 horse Mandarin Hero.
The original No. 20, Continuar, was scratched because his trainer felt he wasn't ready to run and replaced by the final alternate, King Russell. Like Practical Move, Skinner was scratched Friday due to an elevated temperature.
And on the day of the Derby, favorite Forte (the No. 13 horse) was scratched after a meeting with a state racing commission veterinarian. He will not be replaced in the field, winnowing the number of horses running the race to 18.
| Post position | Horse | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hit Show | +3000 |
| 2 | Verifying | +1500 |
| 3 | Two Phil's | +1200 |
| 4 | Confidence Game | +2000 |
| 5 | Tapit Trice | +500 |
| 6 | Kingsbarns | +1200 |
| 7 | Reincarnate | +5000 |
| 8 | Mage | +1500 |
| 9 | Disarm | +3000 |
| 10 | Jace's Road | +1500 |
| 11 | Sun Thunder | +5000 |
| 12 | Angel of Empire | +800 |
| 13 | Raise Cain | +5000 |
| 14 | Derma Sotogake | +1000 |
| 15 | Rocket Can | +3000 |
| 16 | Cyclone Mischief | +3000 |
| 17 | Mandarin Hero | +2000 |
| 18 | King Russell | +5000 |
MORE: Fast facts to know before picking a Kentucky Derby horse
Kentucky Derby expert picks
As mentioned, the Kentucky Derby is a 1 1/4-mile race, so stamina is arguably the most important trait to identify in a winning horse. Pace-setting horses may start the race well, but because it is longer than the average race, they tend to fade down the stretch a bit.
As such, it's better to target horses that may hang back early and have good enough closing burst to win the race. Here are the best horses that check those boxes:
Best bets to win the Kentucky Derby 2023
With Forte out of the race, the two top-tier favorites Tapit Trice (+500) and Angel of Empire (+800) provide bettors with safest combination of value and upside.
Tapit Trice is looking to become the first gray horse to win the Kentucky Derby since Giacomo in 2005, and he should have a good chance to do it. The colt is trained by the legendary Todd Pletcher, who has sent 62 horses to the Kentucky Derby including three in 2023, and has won four of his five career starts.
Tapit Trice is a come-from-behind horse that tends to sag off the pace early before finishing strong with his solid speed. While you shouldn't expect to see this horse lead early, his power and stamina should make him a contender — provided that he doesn't start too slowly and get caught in traffic. Veteran jocker Luis Saez, who rode Maximum Security to a Kentucky Derby win in 2019 but was later disqualified, should keep the latter scenario from unfolding.
As for Angel of Empire, he is another horse with a winning pedigree. The colt has won four of his six starts and finished second in one of his defeats. That included a victory at the Arkansas Derby, a 1 1/8-mile race that has been run by other Kentucky Derby winners like American Pharoah and Curlin.
Angel of Empire has demonstrated great closing speed in his victories. That should allow him to make a strong push to win the 2023 Kentucky Derby if he can remain close to the pack of leaders until the final few furlongs. He will be ridden by experienced jockey Flavien Prat, who won the Kentucky Derby in 2019 riding Country House after Maximum Security's disqualification, so he should have the horse positioned to make a strong top-three push.
Sleeper pick for the Kentucky 2023
If you're looking for real value in your Kentucky Derby picks, then look no further than Verifying (+1500). The horse in the No. 2 gate has two wins and two second-place finishes in six starts and could end up being a surprise winner at the race in 2023.
Verifying was sired by Justify, who won the Triple Crown in 2018, and has good speed thanks to his pedigree. He isn't quite a pace-setter — he runs with more of a stalking style — but he should get out of the gate quickly and, potentially, get a hold of the rail. And if, Verifying and jockey Tyler Gaffalione can take command of the shortest path to victory, the duo can eventually position themselves for a quality stretch run.
Verifying's top speed may not be quite as fast as some of his competitors who have it at an elite level. That said, his good stamina and solid closing burst should combine with his speed to make him one of the fastest and freshest horses down the stretch. That is enough to make him a rock-solid sleeper and potential top-three finisher in this race.
MORE: More sleepers, value picks for the 2023 Kentucky Derby
What is the best post position in horse racing?
There really isn't a best post position in any race, per se. It varies by race and the type of horse that is running from each of the gates.
Typically, horses that like more space will prefer to be in the higher-numbered posts. Why? Because they will be able to work with more space to the outside and have the added advantage of note having to remain inside the gate for as long after loading.
That said, the shortest path to victory comes on the inner posts. As such, getting the No. 1 gate can be an advantage from a distance perspective, but it does come with drawbacks for more claustrophobic horses. They will not only have to wait in the gate longer before starting the race but they will be granted little space to maneuver within on either side during the race.
If that happens, the horses can get nervous, and that may lead them to stray from the pack. That can cause them to fall behind while looking for space and put them at a disadvantage in the race as a whole.
When it comes to the Kentucky Derby, there have been a wide distribution of winners from each post position over the years. That said, horses from the No. 5 gate have won most frequently with 10 wins over the years while the No. 10 gate has accounted for nine victories since the implementation of the starting gate.
The 2022 Kentucky Derby winner Rich Strike came from the 20th gate. He was just the second horse to win from that position, joining 2008 victor Big Brown.
Here is the complete list of Kentucky Derby winners at each post position since the starting gate was implemented in 1930:
| Post position | Kentucky Derby winners |
|---|---|
| 1 | 8 |
| 2 | 7 |
| 3 | 5 |
| 4 | 5 |
| 5 | 10 |
| 6 | 2 |
| 7 | 8 |
| 8 | 8 |
| 9 | 4 |
| 10 | 9 |
| 11 | 2 |
| 12 | 3 |
| 13 | 5 |
| 14 | 2 |
| 15 | 6 |
| 16 | 4 |
| 17 | 0 |
| 18 | 2 |
| 19 | 1 |
| 20 | 2 |
Kentucky Derby winners by post position
The Kentucky Derby first utilized a starting gate in 1930. Since that time, each of the pole positions has produced a winning horse, save for the No. 17 slot.
Since 2000, 10 of the winning horses have run from Gates 5 to 10. Two posts have produced four winners over that time: Gates 5 and 15.
Below is a list of all of the winners at each gate since 1930.
- 1 — (8) Ferdinand (1986); Chateaugay (1963); Needles (1956); Hill Gail (1952); Citation (1948); Gallahadion (1940); Lawrin (1938); War Admiral (1937)
- 2 — (7) Affirmed (1978); Bold Forbes (1976); Cannonade (1974); Dust Commander (1970); Tim Tam (1958); Ponder (1949) Assault (1946)
- 3 — (5) Real Quiet (1998); Alysheba (1987); Spectacular Bid (1979); Foolish Pleasure (1975); Shut Out (1942)
- 4 — (5) Super Saver (2010); Seattle Slew (1977); Decidedly (1962); Pensive (1944); Whirlaway (1941)
- 5 — (10) Always Dreaming (2017); California Chrome (2014); Funny Cide (2003); War Emblem (2002); Silver Charm (1997); Strike the Gold (1991); Count Fleet (1943); Johnstown (1939); Bold Venture (1936); Twenty Grand (1931)
- 6 — (2) Sea Hero (1993); Iron Liege (1957)
- 7 — (8) Mandaloun (2021); Justify (2018); Street Sense (2007); Pleasant Colony (1981); Proud Clarion (1967); Northern Dancer (1964); Determine (1954); Gallant Fox (1930)
- 8 — (8) Mine That Bird (2009); Barbaro (2006); Go for Gin (1994); Unbridled (1990); Majestic Prince (1969); Lucky Debonair (1965); Swaps (1955); Cavalcade (1934)
- 9 — (4) Riva Ridge (1972); Venetian Way (1960); Tomy Lee (1959); Count Turf (1951)
- 10 — (9) Giacomo (2005); Lil E. Tee (1992); Sunday Silence (1989); Spend a Buck (1985); Sunny’s Halo (1983); Genuine Risk (1980); Secretariat (1973); Dark Star (1953); Omaha (1935)
- 11 — (2) Winning Colors (1988); Brokers Tip (1933)
- 12 — (3) Canonero II (1971); Kauai King (1966); Hoop Jr. (1945)
- 13 — (4) Nyquist (2016) Smarty Jones (2004); Forward Pass (1968); Jet Pilot (1947); Burgoo King (1932)
- 14 — (2) Carry Back (1961); Middleground (1950)
- 15 — (6) Authentic (2020); American Pharoah (2015); Orb (2013); Fusaichi Pegasus (2000); Grindstone (1996); Swale (1984)
- 16 — (4) Animal Kingdom (2011); Monarchos (2001); Charismatic (1999); Thunder Gulch (1995)
- 17 — (0)
- 18 — (2) Country House (2019); Gato Del Sol (1982)
- 19 — (1) I’ll Have Another (2012)
- 20 — (2) Rich Strike (2022); Big Brown (2008)