Based on their spots in the QB rankings, Trey Lance and Aaron Rodgers have similar overall fantasy outlooks in 2022. Of course, fantasy owners know these two signal-callers couldn't be more different. Rodgers is a reliable superstar, while the unproven Lance is a potential dual-threat breakout who also has carries some bust risk.
When you're on the clock in the early-middle/middle rounds deciding on a QB, which one of these two QBs makes more sense? Here's breaking down who's the better pick for your team:
DOMINATE YOUR DRAFT: Ultimate 2022 fantasy cheat sheet
Trey Lance fantasy outlook, projections 2022
Lance started just two games as a rookie, filling in for an injured Jimmy Garoppolo. Now, barring injury, he will be the full-time starter in Year 2.
When weighing his three games of significant action in 2021, Lance teased at his major production upside. When counting 6 points per passing TD, Lance averaged almost 21 fantasy points per game, in big part tied to averaging 54 rushing yards in those outings.
2022 PPR RANKINGS:
QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | D/STs | Kickers | Top 200 | Superflex
Consider Garoppolo finished as a mid QB2 with just 51 rushing yards total last season. Balancing out the team rushing for 22 TDs, the 49ers threw for 26 TDs along with 4,437 yards. Garoppolo also scored three rushing TDs with Lance adding one via a red-zone-specific package vs. the Packers in Week 3.
There's plenty of yardage available in 2022 for a dynamic passing game featuring George Kittle, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and several other versatile cogs. Lance also has showed good chemistry with rookie downfield threat Danny Gray. Samuel is unlikely to be used as much in running situations, too, with Lance getting some chances for short scores.
2022 STANDARD RANKINGS:
QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | D/STs | Kickers | Top 200 | Superflex
Lance has a high ceiling with his big arm to execute on more plays downfield than Garoppolo. A reasonable floor for his rushing yardage is 600-700.
It's been a decade since a Shanahan offense (Kyle or Mike) was tied to a running QB. A rookie Robert Griffin III was a fantasy force for Washington in 2012 by passing for 3,200 yards and 20 TDs and rushing for 815 yards and seven more TDs.
There should be a good feeling Lance can outdo those stats with a more dangerous receiving corps but still with a strong zone-rushing attack and elite protection from left tackle Trent Williams.
2022 FANTASY SLEEPERS:
QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | D/STs | One from each team
Aaron Rodgers fantasy outlook, projections 2022
2021 finish: QB6 in overall scoring, QB8 in average scoring
Rodgers has been dropped from mid-QB1 to early-QB2 in the rankings. The big reason for that was losing wide receivers Davante Adams and Marquez Valdes-Scantling. That's 1,983 of his passing yards and 14 of his passing TDs gone from last season.
However, thinking Rodgers will drop so far is off-base for someone who has put NFL MVP-worthy numbers back-to-back. Allen Lazard is his most productive returning receiver. Randall Cobb and tight end Robert Tonyan are battling injuries, but they have established trust from Rodgers in the red zone.
2022 AUCTION VALUES (Standard & PPR):
QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | D/STs | Kickers | Overall
Rookie second-rounder Christian Watson, an NFL Combine star, has been ailing, but rookie fourth-rounder Romeo Doubs looks like he will have immediate impact. Rodgers also has hinted he plans to raise the receiving involvement of running backs Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon to compensate, too.
In his past seven healthy seasons, Rodgers has dipped below 4,000 yards passing only once, way back in 2015. He did surpass that by only two yards in 2019, which is notable since it was his first year in Matt LaFleur's offense.
2022 RANKINGS TIERS & DRAFT STRATEGY:
QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | D/STs
Before his MVP run the past two seasons, Rodgers had just 26 TDs before spiking to 48 and cooling off to 37 last year. That was related to Aaron Jones rushing for a career-high 16 scores.
For Rodgers, a 32-TD season with somewhere around 4K passing again makes sense, with negligible deductions for interceptions and boosts from rushing. That can still add up to a top-12 QB finish.
However, should Lance match those total TDs with 3,500 yards passing and 700 yards rushing (all doable), he has the better potential for a top-six QB finish. There's more risk with Lance, but there's also more reward.
The pick is ... Lance
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