A lot of fantasy football sites claim to have the "best" or "most accurate" player rankings. The truth is, depending on how you view results, there are probably four or five sites that have a legit claim to that title. 4for4 comes to mind as one in the past. Another might be FullTime Fantasy, or even Fantasy Life. All of these sites offer consistently solid player rankings.
But the one that stands out most to us is DraftSharks.com. How come?
For starters, lead analyst Jared Smola just won FantasyPros' prestigious multi-year rankings accuracy award. That competition covers a rolling three-year window vs. 247 other websites, so you know it shows consistency over time in a highly competitive environment.
On top of that, DraftSharks had three analysts in the top 10 for 2022 accuracy. Jacob Herlin of FantasyPros said, "Special recognition is in order for Draft Sharks, which becomes the first site to put three different experts in the top 10 in the same year."
On top of that, Draft Sharks has been consistently winning accuracy awards since its inception in 1999 (this is their 25th season). They’re not the new kid on the block who simply got lucky.
MORE DRAFT SHARKS: See more exclusive tools, stats, and analysis from Draft Sharks
Their fantasy rankings are built on top-down projections for each team and player. So, their projections can be applied to all scoring formats, not just the generic one or two. Their projections also power a dynamic cheat sheet that live-syncs to your draft, and it uses 17 draft value factors to give you player recommendations in every round — in real time.
With all that in mind, we reached out to Draft Sharks with a simple request: According to their 2023 projections and current ADP rankings, we wanted to know three players they think are overvalued and three players they think are undervalued?
A little bit of insider info can benefit readers like you. Here’s what this analysis gave us.
Most Accurate Fantasy Football Rankings 2023: Three undervalued players
Rachaad White, RB, Buccaneers
Draft Sharks Rank: RB22
Underdog Fantasy ADP: RB26
Leonard Fournette hit free agency in March, so you’re looking at Chase Edmonds, Ke’Shawn Vaughn, Patrick Laird, and undrafted free agent Sean Tucker as Tampa's remaining backfield depth. The Bucs lost 282 RB opportunities (targets plus carries) this offseason, and White projects as the clear lead back.
You don’t have to take our word for it. New offensive coordinator Dave Canales called the 24-year-old a "three-down back." ESPN insider Jeremy Fowler reported the Bucs see "star potential."
Here’s more from Fowler: "Not only will he get a heavy workload rushing, but the Bucs have been expanding his route tree, believing he can inflict damage as a receiver."
You can fret over Tampa Bay’s QB situation (it’s ugly), but shaky QB play could mean even more check-downs as opposed to deeper targets for WRs.
White’s projected touch volume offers at least a sturdy RB2-level floor, with upside beyond that.
Elijah Moore, WR, Browns
Draft Sharks Rank: WR40
Underdog Fantasy ADP: WR44
Most of the optimism here stems from Moore's performance in the second half of 2021. Then a rookie Round 2 pick, Moore diced up secondaries downfield and after the catch. His hottest stretch — Week 8-13 — produced 51 targets, 34 catches, 459 yards, and five TDs.
His QBs? Zach Wilson and Mike White.
A soured relationship between Moore and the Jets turned his '22 upside down. Now he’s set to rebound in a new city, and a new Elijah Moore hype piece seems to emerge daily.
Dating back to OTAs, he’s looked like Cleveland’s No. 2 target behind Amari Cooper. Several Browns staff members have praised his inside-outside versatility, which will help exploit mismatches. An improved Deshaun Watson will help, too. The QB stunk last year, posting a 58.2-percent completion rate and 6.5 yards per attempt, but we’re giving him a pass following a nearly two-year layoff.
Watson doesn’t need to hit elite marks for Moore to pay off at his ADP. If Watson can perform as a top-12 passer – a fair bar to reach – there’s potential for WR3 totals.
Darren Waller, TE, Giants
Draft Sharks Rank: TE5
Underdog Fantasy ADP: TE7
Injuries are the worst. Ask Waller’s fantasy owners, who’ve witnessed 14 missed games over the past two seasons. Here’s why we’re not concerned: Waller missed about one month of practice last summer. A hamstring injury appeared minor then, given that contract negotiations were also partially responsible for his absence, but Waller aggravated the hamstring during the season and eventually landed on IR.
He’s been healthy this offseason, though, and lands in a new situation. Let’s be real: Waller is more WR than TE. He has run fewer routes in line for his career than he has out wide and in the slot. That’s perfect for fantasy, and there’s no way Waller’s creative usage will stop alongside offensive-minded HC Brian Daboll.
New York’s WR depth chart includes lots of names but little substance: Isaiah Hodgins, Darius Slayton, Parris Campbell, Jalin Hyatt, Sterling Shepard, Wan'Dale Robinson. This group has just one total season of 800-plus yards (Shepard, 2018).
Based on beat reports, Waller has drawn the most targets from QB Daniel Jones. From SNY’s Connor Hughes: "Waller is basically always open in the middle of the field, and Jones is constantly looking for him. This offense hasn't had a weapon like Waller in quite some time, and you can tell everyone is benefiting from it."
It sure sounds like the veteran TE looks back to his 2020 form. We’re drafting Waller now before his ADP rises any further.
MORE DRAFT SHARKS: See more exclusive tools, stats, and analysis from Draft Sharks
Most Accurate Fantasy Football Rankings 2023: Three overvalued players
Christian McCaffrey, RB, 49ers
Draft Sharks Rank: RB2
Underdog Fantasy ADP: RB1
We’re not expecting McCaffrey to fall off a cliff, but with an Underdog ADP of 3.5 overall, he’s well ahead of DraftSharks' No. 8 ranking in half-PPR setups.
Why? Well, McCaffrey’s coming off a healthy 2022. Great, right? But he missed 23 combined games over the previous two years. DraftSharks current projections have McCaffrey missing three games in 2023. His 82-percent injury likelihood ranks high among RBs.
The 49ers are wisely limiting CMC’s workload in training camp. Consider it a reminder that this team — with legit Super Bowl aspirations — probably doesn’t want to overload the 27-year-old back. We even saw that last year.
In a five-game sample with RB Elijah Mitchell, CMC averaged 16 touches. In a seven-game sample without Mitchell — McCaffrey saw nearly 23 touches.
Mitchell’s injury history includes shoulder, rib, finger, knee, head, and hamstring injuries. Now you can add adductor strain to that list. The Aug. 3 setback will cost him about one week of practice, per HC Kyle Shanahan.
You can call it a positive for McCaffrey’s value, but we’ve heard plenty of positive buzz on backup RB Jordan Mason in training camp. And nothing is stopping this team from adding another veteran RB if they’re serious about keeping CMC fresh. The 49ers have commonly used multiple backs under Shanahan, even when losing a player or two to injuries.
DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Titans
Draft Sharks Rank: WR28
Underdog Fantasy ADP: WR24
It’s hard to get fired up about Hopkins’ landing spot. Tennessee has finished 25th or lower in pass attempts all five years under HC Mike Vrabel.
On top of that, the Titans have former first-round pick Treylon Burks. From all indications, he has taken a major leap forward entering Year 2. If Burks transfers that development to games, as Draft Sharks expects — Hopkins’ ceiling will take a hit.
Hopkins has also dealt with lower-body injuries in each of the past three seasons. Most notably, he tore his MCL in December 2021. He sat out two games last December after his knee "flared up."
Now, he’ll adjust to a new QB in Ryan Tannehill. If we’re ranking starting QBs, Tannehill might crack the top 20. We’re not exactly expecting a career year at 35.
Ultimately, we’re not saying Hopkins is washed up at 31, but we’re selling him as a difference-making fantasy asset at his current cost.
George Kittle, TE, 49ers
Draft Sharks Rank: TE7
Underdog Fantasy ADP: TE4
It was always a matter of time before Kittle popped as a TD scorer. Last year, he cashed in with 11 TDs — a career high by five. His 18.3-percent TD rate crushed his pre-2022 high of 8.4 percent. This scoring boost proved critical, as Kittle fell short of 30 receiving yards eight times in 15 games.
Even if Brock Purdy rebounds well from postseason surgery on his throwing elbow, Kittle's TD rate is almost definitely coming back down. Although Purdy played better than anyone could have anticipated as a rookie, we’re still judging him on a small sample of games. There’s a chance he finds his first full season a bit more challenging.
San Francisco's supporting cast remains loaded, too, with Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and now a full offseason with Christian McCaffrey. Take note: In seven games with a healthy Samuel and McCaffrey last year, Kittle managed just a 12.3-percent target share. He finished at 21.4 percent in 2021.
San Francisco has also ranked bottom-even in pass attempts in two straight seasons. We forecast just 514 team pass attempts for 2023.
Of course, Kittle brings the talent to post another outlier season, but fantasy’s a game of probabilities. Odds are, we’ll see regression from the 30-year-old tight end.
Interested in learning more about Draft Sharks? You owe it to yourself to check out this quick video.