Pencils down!
NFL Draft season isn't exciting just for the draft itself, but also for draftniks and analysts putting together advanced, detailed scouting reports and offering solutions for all 32 NFL teams. That doesn't mean that they get it right, though.
Consider this: In 2022, NBC Sports' Peter King set the highwater mark for most correct picks in a wild and wacky first round, with a score of seven out of 32 correct. Mel Kiper Jr. and Todd McShay had the same grade, getting 4 1/2 points out of 32.
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If there's any one thing the NFL Draft tells us every year, it's that no one knows anything. It's a crapshoot of epic proportions, a massive guessing game wrapped in a puzzle. Just look at the mock drafts below and see how some of the experts fared in 2023.
The Sporting News took some of the heavy hitters of the draft world and graded their final mock drafts to see just how close they got to the real one. Here's how the grading worked:
- One full point for correct player, pick and team;
- One half point for correct player and pick, but incorrect team;
- One half point for correct player and team, but incorrect pick.
(Bold lines represent one full point while italicized lines represent a half-point).
Here's how the experts panned out:
Vinnie Iyer's mock draft (The Sporting News)
Iyer's final mock draft was released April 27:
| Pick | Team | Player | Position | School |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carolina Panthers (from CHI) | Bryce Young | QB | Alabama |
| 2 | Houston Texans | Will Anderson Jr. | EDGE | Alabama |
| 3 | Arizona Cardinals | Tyree Wilson | EDGE | Texas Tech |
| 4 | Indianapolis Colts | Anthony Richardson | QB | Florida |
| 5 | Seattle Seahawks (from DEN) | Jalen Carter | DT | Georgia |
| 6 | Detroit Lions (from LAR) | Devon Witherspoon | CB | Illinois |
| 7 | Las Vegas Raiders | Christian Gonzalez | CB | Oregon |
| 8 | Atlanta Falcons | Myles Murphy | EDGE | Clemson |
| 9 | Chicago Bears (from CAR) | Peter Skoronski | OT | Northwestern |
| 10 | Philadelphia Eagles (from NO) | Bijan Robinson | RB | Texas |
| 11 | Tennessee Titans | Will Levis | QB | Kentucky |
| 12 | Houston Texans (from CLE) | C.J. Stroud | QB | Ohio State |
| 13 | Green Bay Packers (from NYJ) | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | Ohio State |
| 14 | New England Patriots | Paris Johnson Jr. | OT | Ohio State |
| 15 | New York Jets (from GB) | Broderick Jones | OT | Georgia |
| 16 | Washington Commanders | Deonte Banks | CB | Maryland |
| 17 | Pittsburgh Steelers | Joey Porter Jr. | CB | Penn State |
| 18 | Detroit Lions | Dalton Kincaid | TE | Utah |
| 19 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Hendon Hooker | QB | Tennessee |
| 20 | Seattle Seahawks | John Michael Schmitz | C | Minnesota |
| 21 | Los Angeles Chargers | Zay Flowers | WR | Boston College |
| 22 | Baltimore Ravens | Quentin Johnston | WR | TCU |
| 23 | Minnesota Vikings | Jordan Addison | WR | USC |
| 24 | Jacksonville Jaguars | Brian Branch | S | Alabama |
| 25 | New York Giants | Drew Sanders | LB | Arkansas |
| 26 | Dallas Cowboys | Antonio Johnson | S | Texas A&M |
| 27 | Buffalo Bills | Trenton Simpson | LB | Clemson |
| 28 | Cincinnati Bengals | Michael Mayer | TE | Notre Dame |
| 29 | New Orleans Saints (from SF, via MIA and DEN) | Lukas Van Ness | EDGE | Iowa |
| 30 | Philadelphia Eagles | Nolan Smith | EDGE | Georgia |
| 31 | Kansas City Chiefs | Darnell Wright | OT | Tennessee |
Picks correct: 5/31
Noteworthy
— The Eagles finished their draft strong, taking Nolan Smith at No. 30. That gives the Eagles three defenders from Georgia's national championship squads: Smith, Jalen Carter and Jordan Davis (drafted in 2022).
MORE: Ranking signings, trades for all 32 NFL teams from best (Bears) to worst (Packers)
Mel Kiper's mock draft (ESPN)
Kiper's final mock draft was released April 27. His full analysis on each pick can be found here.
| Pick | Team | Player | Position | School |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carolina Panthers (from CHI) | Bryce Young | QB | Alabama |
| 2 | Houston Texans | Will Anderson Jr. | OLB | Alabama |
| 3 | Tennessee Titans (from ARI) | C.J. Stroud | QB | Ohio State |
| 4 | Indianapolis Colts | Will Levis | QB | Kentucky |
| 5 | Seattle Seahawks (from DEN) | Jalen Carter | DT | Georgia |
| 6 | Detroit Lions (from LAR) | Devon Witherspoon | CB | Illinois |
| 7 | Las Vegas Raiders | Christian Gonzalez | CB | Oregon |
| 8 | Atlanta Falcons | Tyree Wilson | DE | Texas Tech |
| 9 | Chicago Bears (from CAR) | Paris Johnson Jr. | OT | Ohio State |
| 10 | Philadelphia Eagles (from NOS) | Bijan Robinson | RB | Texas |
| 11 | Arizona Cardinals (from TEN) | Lukas Van Ness | DL | Iowa |
| 12 | Houston Texans (from CLE) | Zay Flowers | WR | Boston College |
| 13 | Green Bay Packers (from NYJ) | Darnell Wright | OT | Tennessee |
| 14 | New England Patriots | Nolan Smith | OLB | Georgia |
| 15 | Minnesota Vikings (from GB via NYJ) | Anthony Richardson | QB | Florida |
| 16 | Washington Commanders | Peter Skoronski | OT/G | Northwestern |
| 17 | Pittsburgh Steelers | Deonte Banks | CB | Maryland |
| 18 | Detroit Lions | Michael Mayer | TE | Notre Dame |
| 19 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Broderick Jones | OT | Georgia |
| 20 | Seattle Seahawks | Myles Murphy | DE | Clemson |
| 21 | Los Angeles Chargers | Jahymr Gibbs | RB | Alabama |
| 22 | Baltimore Ravens | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | Ohio State |
| 23 | New York Jets (from MIN) | Anton Harrison | OT | Oklahoma |
| 24 | Jacksonville Jaguars | Emmanuel Forbes | CB | Mississippi |
| 25 | New York Giants | Joey Porter Jr. | CB | Penn State |
| 26 | Dallas Cowboys | Dalton Kincaid | TE | Utah |
| 27 | Buffalo Bills | Jordan Addison | WR | USC |
| 28 | Cincinnati Bengals | Calijah Kancey | DT | Pittsburgh |
| 29 | New Orleans Saints (from SF, via MIA and DEN) | Mazi Smith | DT | Michigan |
| 30 | Houston Texans (from PHI) | Hendon Hooker | QB | Tennessee |
| 31 | Kansas City Chiefs | Will McDonald IV | DE | Iowa State |
Picks correct: 1.5/31
Noteworthy:
— Not a particularly strong showing for the Draft Guru in 2023. Kiper got a half-point for getting Will Anderson at No. 2, though the Texans had to trade up to take him at No. 3. Otherwise, Kiper got the first pick spot on, and no other firstrounders correct.
MORE: Career timeline for legendary NFL Draft analyst Mel Kiper Jr.
Daniel Jeremiah's mock draft (NFL Network)
Jeremiah's latest mock draft was released on April 26:
| Pick | Team | Player | Position | School |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carolina Panthers (from CHI) | Bryce Young | QB | Alabama |
| 2 | Houston Texans | C.J. Stroud | QB | Ohio State |
| 3 | Houston Texans (from ARI) | Will Anderson Jr. | EDGE | Alabama |
| 4 | Indianapolis Colts | Will Levis | QB | Kentucky |
| 5 | Seattle Seahawks (from DEN) | Jalen Carter | DT | Georgia |
| 6 | Detroit Lions (from LAR) | Devon Witherspoon | CB | Illinois |
| 7 | Las Vegas Raiders | Christian Gonzalez | CB | Oregon |
| 8 | Atlanta Falcons | Bijan Robinson | RB | Texas |
| 9 | Chicago Bears (from CAR) | Tyree Wilson | EDGE | Texas Tech |
| 10 | Philadelphia Eagles (from NO) | Nolan Smith | EDGE | Georgia |
| 11 | Tennessee Titans | Zay Flowers | WR | Boston College |
| 12 | Arizona Cardinals (from CLE via HOU) | Paris Johnson Jr. | OT | Ohio State |
| 13 | Green Bay Packers (from NYJ) | Dalton Kincaid | TE | Utah |
| 14 | New England Patriots | Lukas Van Ness | EDGE | Iowa |
| 15 | New York Jets (from GB) | Peter Skoronski | OT | Northwestern |
| 16 | Washington Commanders | Emmanuel Forbes | CB | Mississippi |
| 17 | Pittsburgh Steelers | Broderick Jones | OT | Georgia |
| 18 | Detroit Lions | Calijah Kancey | DT | Pittsburgh |
| 19 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | Ohio State |
| 20 | Seattle Seahawks | Anthony Richardson | QB | Florida |
| 21 | Los Angeles Chargers | Michael Mayer | TE | Notre Dame |
| 22 | Baltimore Ravens | Deonte Banks | CB | Maryland |
| 23 | Minnesota Vikings | Jordan Addison | WR | USC |
| 24 | Jacksonville Jaguars | Joey Porter Jr. | CB | Penn State |
| 25 | New York Giants | Brian Branch | CB | Alabama |
| 26 | Dallas Cowboys | Luke Musgrave | TE | Oregon State |
| 27 | Buffalo Bills | Quentin Johnston | WR | TCU |
| 28 | Cincinnati Bengals | Keeanu Benton | DT | Wisconsin |
| 29 | New Orleans Saints (from SF, via MIA and DEN) | Myles Murphy | EDGE | Clemson |
| 30 | Philadelphia Eagles | Jahmyr Gibbs | RB | Alabama |
| 31 | Kansas City Chiefs | Darnell Wright | OT | Tennessee |
Picks correct: 6.5/31
Noteworthy:
— Jeremiah set the high-water mark for this year's draft, including an excellent projection with the Texans' top two picks, including the Houston trade up to No. 3 overall.
MORE: Why are there only 31 picks in the first round of the 2023 NFL Draft?
Todd McShay's mock draft (ESPN)
McShay's latest mock draft was released on April 27, with a midday adjustment. For full detailed analysis for each pick, visit his mock draft here.
| Pick | Team | Player | Position | School |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carolina Panthers (from CHI) | Bryce Young | QB | Alabama |
| 2 | Houston Texans | Tyree Wilson | DE | Texas Tech |
| 3 | Tennessee Titans (from ARI) | C.J. Stroud | QB | Ohio State |
| 4 | Indianapolis Colts | Will Levis | QB | Kentucky |
| 5 | Seattle Seahawks (from DEN) | Jalen Carter | DT | Georgia |
| 6 | Detroit Lions (from LAR) | Devon Witherspoon | CB | Illinois |
| 7 | Las Vegas Raiders | Christian Gonzalez | CB | Oregon |
| 8 | Atlanta Falcons | Bijan Robinson | RB | Texas |
| 9 | Chicago Bears (from CAR) | Tyree Wilson | DE | Texas Tech |
| 10 | Philadelphia Eagles (from NOS) | Nolan Smith | OLB | Georgia |
| 11 | Arizona Cardinals (from TEN) | Paris Johnson Jr. | OT | Ohio State |
| 12 | Houston Texans (from CLE) | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | Ohio State |
| 13 | Green Bay Packers (from NYJ) | Dalton Kincaid | TE | Utah |
| 14 | New England Patriots | Peter Skoronski | OT | Northwestern |
| 15 | New York Jets (from GB) | Broderick Jones | OT | Georgia |
| 16 | Washington Commanders | Emmanuel Forbes | CB | Mississippi State |
| 17 | Pittsburgh Steelers | Deonte Banks | CB | Maryland |
| 18 | Detroit Lions | Calijah Kancey | DT | Pittsburgh |
| 19 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Darnell Wright | OT | Tennessee |
| 20 | Seattle Seahawks | Anthony Richardson | QB | Florida |
| 21 | Los Angeles Chargers | Zay Flowers | WR | Boston College |
| 22 | Baltimore Ravens | Joey Porter Jr. | CB | Penn State |
| 23 | Minnesota Vikings | Jordan Addison | WR | USC |
| 24 | Jacksonville Jaguars | Lukas Van Ness | DE | Iowa |
| 25 | New York Giants | Michael Mayer | TE | Notre Dame |
| 26 | Dallas Cowboys | Luke Musgrave | TE | Oregon State |
| 27 | Buffalo Bills | Quentin Johnston | WR | TCU |
| 28 | Cincinnati Bengals | Jahmyr Gibbs | RB | Alabama |
| 29 | New Orleans Saints (from SF, via MIA and DEN) | Myles Murphy | DE | Clemson |
| 30 | Philadelphia Eagles | Brian Branch | S/CB | Alabama |
| 31 | Kansas City Chiefs | Will McDonald IV | OLB | Iowa State |
Picks correct: 4/31
Noteworthy:
— Like a few others, McShay had Jordan Addison and Emmanuel Forbes going to the Vikings and Commanders, respectively, which makes for two selections. Otherwise, he had a few players in the first round who did not go there — Will Levis, Michael Mayer, Luke Musgrave and Brian Branch, most notably.
Dane Brugler's mock draft (The Athletic)
Brugler's latest mock draft was revealed on April 27. For full details and analysis, visit Brugler's mock draft here.
| Pick | Team | Player | Position | School |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carolina Panthers (from CHI) | Bryce Young | QB | Alabama |
| 2 | Houston Texans | Will Anderson Jr. | EDGE | Alabama |
| 3 | Arizona Cardinals | Tyree Wilson | EDGE | Texas Tech |
| 4 | Indianapolis Colts | C.J. Stroud | QB | Ohio State |
| 5 | Seattle Seahawks (from DEN) | Jalen Carter | DT | Georgia |
| 6 | Detroit Lions (from LAR) | Devon Witherspoon | CB | Illinois |
| 7 | Las Vegas Raiders | Christian Gonzalez | CB | Oregon |
| 8 | Atlanta Falcons | Bijan Robinson | RB | Texas |
| 9 | Chicago Bears (from CAR) | Paris Johnson Jr. | OT | Ohio State |
| 10 | Philadelphia Eagles | Peter Skoronski | G/T | Northwestern |
| 11 | Tennessee Titans | Anthony Richardson | QB | Florida |
| 12 | Houston Texans (from CLE) | Will Levis | QB | Kentucky |
| 13 | Green Bay Packers (from NYJ) | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | Ohio State |
| 14 | New England Patriots | Deonte Banks | CB | Maryland |
| 15 | New York Jets (from GB) | Broderick Jones | OT | Georgia |
| 16 | Washington Commanders | Emmanuel Forbes | CB | Mississippi State |
| 17 | Pittsburgh Steelers | Darnell Wright | OT | Tennessee |
| 18 | Detroit Lions | Lukas Van Ness | EDGE | Iowa |
| 19 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Nolan Smith | EDGE | Georgia |
| 20 | Seattle Seahawks | Zay Flowers | WR | Boston College |
| 21 | Los Angeles Chargers | Michael Mayer | TE | Notre Dame |
| 22 | Baltimore Ravens | Joey Porter Jr. | CB | Penn State |
| 23 | Minnesota Vikings | Jordan Addison | WR | USC |
| 24 | Jacksonville Jaguars | Brian Branch | S | Alabama |
| 25 | New York Giants | Quentin Johnston | WR | TCU |
| 26 | Dallas Cowboys | Dalton Kincaid | TE | Utah |
| 27 | Buffalo Bills | Matthew Bergeron | OT | Syracuse |
| 28 | Cincinnati Bengals | Calijah Kancey | DT | Pittsburgh |
| 29 | New Orleans Saints (from SF, via MIA and DEN) | Mazi Smith | DT | Michigan |
| 30 | Philadelphia Eagles | Adetomiwa Adebawore | DT | Northwestern |
| 31 | Kansas City Chiefs | Myles Murphy | EDGE | Clemson |
Picks correct:
Noteworthy: 4.5/31
— Brugler tied a few others with 4.5 points for his mock draft. Notable misses in the first include Will Levis and Matthew Bergeron — Brugler was the only one of the mock drafters here who had Bergeron in the first round.
Peter King's mock draft (NBC Sports)
King's mock draft was revealed on April 24.
| Pick | Team | Player | Position | School |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carolina Panthers (from CHI) | Bryce Young | QB | Alabama |
| 2 | Houston Texans | Tyree Wilson | EDGE | Texas Tech |
| 3 | Tennessee Titans (from ARI) | C.J. Stroud | QB | Ohio State |
| 4 | Indianapolis Colts | Will Levis | QB | Kentucky |
| 5 | Seattle Seahawks (from DEN) | Jalen Carter | DT | Georgia |
| 6 | Detroit Lions (from LAR) | Will Anderson | EDGE | Alabama |
| 7 | Las Vegas Raiders | Devon Witherspoon | CB | Illinois |
| 8 | Atlanta Falcons | Bijan Robinson | RB | Texas |
| 9 | Chicago Bears (from CAR) | Paris Johnson Jr. | OT | Ohio State |
| 10 | Philadelphia Eagles (form NO) | Nolan Smith | EDGE | Georgia |
| 11 | Arizona Cardinals (from TEN) | Christian Gonzalez | CB | Oregon |
| 12 | Houston Texans (from CLE) | Hendon Hooker | QB | Tennessee |
| 13 | New York Jets | Broderick Jones | T | Georgia |
| 14 | New England Patriots | Peter Skoronski | T/G | Northwestern |
| 15 | Green Bay Packers | Dalton Kincaid | TE | Utah |
| 16 | Washington Commanders | Brian Branch | S | Alabama |
| 17 | Pittsburgh Steelers | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | Ohio State |
| 18 | Detroit Lions | Deonte Banks | CB | Maryland |
| 19 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Darnell Wright | T | Tennessee |
| 20 | Seattle Seahawks | Zay Flowers | WR | Boston College |
| 21 | Los Angeles Chargers | Jordan Addison | WR | USC |
| 22 | Baltimore Ravens | Emmanuel Forbes | CB | Mississippi State |
| 23 | Minnesota Vikings | Anthony Richardson | QB | Florida |
| 24 | Jacksonville Jaguars | Lukas Van Ness | EDGE | Iowa |
| 25 | New York Giants | Michael Mayer | TE | Notre Dame |
| 26 | Dallas Cowboys | Joey Porter Jr. | CB | Penn State |
| 27 | Buffalo Bills | Josh Downs | WR | North Carolina |
| 28 | Cincinnati Bengals | Luke Musgrave | TE | Oregon State |
| 29 | New Orleans Saints (from SF, via MIA and DEN) | Myles Murphy | DE | Cleveland |
| 30 | Philadelphia Eagles | Jahmyr Gibbs | RB | Alabama |
| 31 | Kansas City Chiefs | O'Cyrus Torrence | G | Florida |
Picks correct: 2.5/31
Noteworthy:
— King was the reigning and defending mock-draft expert in the last two years, but he didn't have as strong a go of it in 2023. Also worth noting: King's mock draft came out before the Aaron Rodgers trade, so he had the original picks for both the Packers and Jets.