Following a routine decision win over British lefty John Ryder on Cinco De Mayo weekend, it was taken as gospel that undisputed super middleweight champion Canelo Alvarez would target Mexican Independence Day in mid-September for a Las Vegas mega fight.
Not so fast.
There are now strong rumors that boxing’s biggest star will return in October, and the location may very well be Saudi Arabia. It’s a point of contention for many, but the money fronted by Middle Eastern royalty is now more than a match for the big guns from gambling-rich Las Vegas and boxing’s biggest star could be vying for a piece of the action.
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The question is, who will Canelo fight?
The Mexican icon is never short on options and that’s certainly the case this time around. However, some of these potential matchups are more likely to happen than others, while some fights have been all talk and no action for a period of years. Among the issues preventing them from being green-lit are weight, ego, promotional allegiance, and business beef.
The Sporting News now looks at some of the opponents (in alphabetical order) that could conceivably appear on Canelo’s dance card and then breaks down the chances of them happening:
David Benavidez
- Age: 26
- Record: 27-0 (23 KOs)
- Titles: WBC interim super middleweight
The matchup most fight fans want at 168 pounds is Canelo against unbeaten two-time world titleholder David Benavidez. A gutsy and rampaging pressure fighter, the 26-year-old Benavidez has 23 knockouts in 27 straight wins, and he doesn’t know how to lose. The Las Vegas-based contender has been calling Canelo’s name from the rooftops to no avail and recent negotiations didn’t get out of first gear.
In terms of danger level, this one appears to be code red for Canelo. Benavidez is a career super middleweight and a serious badass. Unfortunately, Canelo doesn’t rate his accomplishments, so you have more chance of finding a one-ended stick than seeing this one any time soon.
Likelihood: 1/5
Edgar Berlanga
- Age: 26
- Record: 20-0 (16 KOs)
- Titles: N/A
Another fight that’s been mentioned more than once is Canelo against Matchroom’s new super middleweight acquisition Edgar Berlanga. The hard-hitting New Yorker is 20-0 (16 KOs) but fans have already poured cold water on a potential bout, claiming that Berlanga is still too green to mix it with a seasoned champion like Canelo. Such fans are 100 percent right.
Berlanga set the hardcore world alight by scoring 16 first-round knockouts in succession. Then things went downhill. As soon as boxing’s big hitter went up a couple of levels, the opponents started hitting him back and he was taken the distance in three consecutive bouts (Marcelo Esteban Coceras, Steve Rolls, and Roamer Alexis Angulo).
It's way too soon.
Likelihood: 2/5
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Dmitry Bivol 2
- Age: 32
- Record: 21-0 (11 KOs)
- Titles: WBA light heavyweight
A rematch with WBA light heavyweight titleholder Dmitry Bivol, who handily outpointed Canelo last May, looks doomed due to a disagreement about weight classes. Bivol wants Canelo’s 168-pound belt collection, whereas Canelo is insistent on running it back at 175. The Russian star has the refreshing approach of putting legacy before money and, thus far, he has refused to play ball.
Also, the WBC’s decision not to allow Bivol to contest their title due to his Russian citizenship has put forth an added roadblock in terms of challenging for the undisputed championship.
Likelihood: 1/5
Jermall Charlo
- Age: 33
- Record: 32-0 (22 KOs)
- Titles: WBC middleweight
This fight was all the rage a few years ago, but Canelo rocketing up through the weights put it on the back burner. Well, according to ESPN’s Mike Coppinger, Canelo is now considering a fight against the reigning – and extremely inactive – WBC middleweight champ, presumably at 168 pounds.
Charlo has been out of the ring since June 2021, when he scored a routine decision over Juan Macias Montiel. The unbeaten Texan has been battling mental health problems, but the plan has always been for him to get back in the ring.
Does he take on a fighter of Canelo’s class in pedigree following a two-year layoff? Does the potential reward justify the risk? Charlo may never get the chance again if he were to decline it.
Likelihood: 3/5
Badou Jack
- Age: 39
- Record: 28-3-3 (17 KOs)
- Titles: WBC cruiserweight
A Canelo cruiserweight incursion has been discussed for well over a year, with the Mexican star teasing the idea at a WBC convention when he took part in a faceoff with then-champion Ilunga Makabu.
Unfortunately for Makabu, he lost out on that money-spinning opportunity when Canelo lost to Bivol at 175. And things got worse for the Congolese fighter when he lost his WBC championship to Badou Jack in February.
Now, according to ESPN, there are serious discussions underway for a Canelo-Jack showdown. If Canelo were to win that fight, he would equal Sugar Ray Leonard, Thomas Hearns, and Floyd Mayweather as a five-division world champion.
The projected date for what would presumably be a catchweight encounter (big surprise) is sometime in October, with Saudi Arabia the front-runner.
Likelihood: 4/5
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Jaime Munguia
Unlike Berlanga, the 26-year-old Munguia has competed at world level and once held the WBO 154-pound title. The Tijuana-born puncher is unbeaten, with 33 of his 42 straight wins ending inside the distance. As well as all that, the respective styles of Canelo and Munguia, mixed with bucketloads of Mexican machismo, guarantee a high-contact shootout.
But even though both men are showcased on DAZN, a Canelo-Munguia matchup might be doomed from the start. Munguia is promoted by Oscar De La Hoya’s Golden Boy Promotions and that’s a problem. Amid poisonous and litigious hostility, Canelo split from Golden Boy in the fall of 2020 and subsequently began working with Matchroom Boxing. The Canelo-De La Hoya relationship, once extremely close, has never recovered and that might be enough to keep a Canelo-Munguia matchup off the board.
Likelihood: 1/5