Portugal vs. Georgia prediction, odds, betting tips and best bets for Ronaldo's Euro 2024 group finale

Already through to the next round as Group F winners, Portugal match up against a desperate Georgia to finish group-stage play at Euro 2024, as they look ahead to an imminent Round of 16 game.

Cristiano Ronaldo has not yet scored a goal, but instead has enjoyed an unselfish start to the tournament, gaining praise — some of it with a manner of surprise — for his team-first play through two games. It has Portugal sitting on wins against Czechia and Turkey to confirm their place atop the group, regardless of what happens on the final matchday.

They will face a third-place finisher in the knockout stage, but first must navigate a game against Georgia, who are keen to prove themselves worthy of a knockout place in their first European Championship appearance.

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A draw last time out has them on a point, and striker Georges Mikautadze sits amongst the goal scoring leaders at the tournament with one in each of their two games thus far.

Portugal vs. Georgia prediction, odds

• Moneyline lean: Draw (+400)
• Pick: Georgia double chance (+195)
• Score prediction: Portugal 2-2 Georgia

Georgia have looked impressive through their first two games and have been unlucky to only sit on a single point from them. They were done in by a pair of wonder goals against Turkey in their opening defeat, and held firm amidst an onslaught from Czechia.

They are probably going to be under fire again here, but Portugal will be without Rafael Leao, and they have slightly overperformed their Expected Goals (xG) at this tournament so far, to the tune of five goals on 3.91 xG, meaning they could be in for a regression.

Portugal have been exceptional in competitive matches since the 2022 World Cup ended, but have been equally vulnerable in games where the outcome is meaningless for them, including recent friendly defeats to Slovenia and Croatia, plus wins where they conceded twice to both Sweden and Finland. Georgia have a shot to make something happen here and becoming this tournament's darling minnow in the Round of 16.

Portugal vs. Georgia match facts

• Date: Wednesday, Jun. 26, 2024
• Kickoff Time: 9 p.m. local (3 p.m. ET / 12 p.m. PT)
• Location: Veltins-Arena (Gelsenkirchen, Germany)
• Referee: Sandro Scharer (SWI)
• Last meeting: None (First meeting)

Portugal vs. Georgia best bet

• Pick: Over 3.5 yellow cards
• Odds: -120 (DraftKings)

Regardless of how this game plays out, there should be a significant number of bookings in store.

Georgia, who picked up four cautions against Czechia last time out and five overall to this point, will likely be defending in large quantities and should aim to lock down Portugal. The last team to play that way at this tournament was Croatia against the Italian onslaught, picking up a whopping six yellow cards just on their own before having their hearts broken at the death.

Portugal, meanwhile, have not exactly been clean themselves, shown four yellow cards to this point. Two of those were for diving by the suspended Rafael Leao, but they will still be good for a few, especially if walking yellow card Joao Palhinha is again involved.

Portugal vs. Georgia prop bet

• Pick: Portugal 19+ total shots
• Odds: +110 (FanDuel)

Georgia may be able to frustrate Portugal, but you can bet the favorites will give it a go. Portugal will surely hold most of the possession, looking to pummel the Georgia penalty area and then stay alert to the counter.

Georgia have been under heavy pressure all tournament long, conceding an insane 49 shots through two games already. Portugal, meanwhile, have hit for 19 in a game once already, against Czechia, and also put up 12 on Turkey.

Giorgi Mamardashvili is the best under-the-radar goalkeeper at this tournament, but he can only do so much against that kind of pressure. It will be down to the quality of chances Portugal create and how they finish them as to whether they can break through. 

Portugal vs. Georgia live stream, TV channel

This match will be televised in the United States on FOX, with the simultaneous kickoff of Czechia vs. Turkey to be shown on FS1. Both FOX and FS1 can be streamed on Fubo, who are offering a FREE trial for new users.

In Canada, this game will be shown on multiple TSN channels as well as TLN, with a French-language broadcast available on TVA Sports.

In the U.K., Euro 2024 matches are split between ITV and the BBC. This match will be televised by ITV, with streaming on their dedicated platform, ITVX.

In India, Euro 2024 games are available on Sony Ten and streamed on JioTV.