Thanks to a late-season surge that helped the Bills extend their postseason streak to five years, Buffalo aims to make a playoff breakthrough en route to their first trip to the big game since 1194. It won't be easy getting past the seventh-seeded Steelers, who've also enjoyed a late-season hot streak to reinvigorate their locker room at the most opportune time.
We've handpicked our favorite DraftKings Showdown lineup for Monday's AFC battle, highlighting several underpriced sleepers and values alongside some must-start studs. Let’s get to our picks and help DFS users end in the money to boost their bankrolls.
Before we get into our lineup and strategy, here are the key scoring settings for DraftKings Showdown contests: They're full-point PPR and there are three-point bonuses for 300 passing yards, 100 rushing yards, and 100 receiving yards. The Captain pick costs 1.5 times a player's original price, but he also gets his point total multiplied by 1.5.
MORE BILLS-STEELERS: Betting preview | Best player props
Bills-Steelers DraftKings Picks: DFS lineup for wild-card playoff matchup
$50,000 budget, need at least one player from each team.
Captain (1.5x points, 1.5x salary): James Cook, RB, Bills ($13,800)
Cook's been the league's third-most efficient running back in terms of his expected points added (+22.2 EPA), and his ability to contribute in both the running and passing game makes him our favorite value play at the Captain spot. In a projected positive game script with his team sitting as double-digit home favorites, Cook has an outside chance to see 20-plus touches, a number he's reached in two of his past four games.
The Steelers' defense hasn't been great at limiting opposing teams' running backs' fantasy outputs, yielding the 19th-most DK points per game, giving us confidence in dishing out $13,800 on the second-year breakout. Cook was bottled up last week against Miami (13 carries, 36 yards), but volume is everything in fantasy, and we're banking on his season-long success to translate to a strong showing this week. Even if he isn't ultra-efficient on the ground, a multi-reception day boosts his floor.
MORE DK SHOWDOWN: How to win a Showdown contest
FLEX Josh Allen, QB, Bills ($12,600)
Allen is fresh off a dominant 359-yard, two-touchdown showing in Buffalo's AFC East-clinching win over Miami (29.1 DK points), doing everything in his power to help extend the Bills' reign over the AFC East. Despite committing three turnovers (two interceptions, one fumble), Allen still eclipsed his fantasy-point average (25.3 DK points) and could have easily totaled 35-plus DK points had the Bills executed a bit better in the red zone. Allen will undoubtedly be a popular DFS play, but he's still a no-brainer addition to Showdown lineups.
FLEX Najee Harris, RB, Steelers ($8,400)
Harris' steady play during the Steelers' three-game winning streak has reaffirmed his role as Pittsburgh's workhorse running back. Harris is averaging 22.76 DK points over that stretch, thanks to seeing 24 carries per game while scoring four touchdowns. Although we expect the Steelers' offense to regress against a Bills' defense rounding back into form, Harris' reliable volume gives him plenty of DFS intrigue at a reasonable price tag of $8,400.
That said, the Bills' defense can be exploited on the ground, ranking 24th in rush/EPA this season (-0.066), so the Steelers' path to success figures to rely on Harris' legs.
FLEX Dalton Kincaid, TE, Bills ($5,800)
With teammate Gabe Davis (knee) exiting Buffalo's Week 18 contest and logging a DNP to begin the practice week, there's a chance the Bills are down one of their trusted receiving options, boosting Kincaid's chances of putting forth a strong fantasy showing. Pittsburgh is ranked below the league average in fantasy points allowed to TEs (22nd) which is good news for someone fresh off their best game in seven weeks (15.4 DK points).
FLEX Bills D/ST ($5,400)
Since we expect a relatively stress-free home win for the Bills, we're going all in on a Buffalo-heavy build by including one of the league's most efficient D/STs during the home stretch of the regular season. Although the Dolphins didn't have their full complement of offensive weapons, Sean McDermott's defense deserves loads of credit for holding Miami scoreless in the final thirty minutes of play this past week.
The Bills' defense, which ranks ninth in pressure rate (23.1%) and has totaled the fourth-most sacks (54), has the makings of wreaking havoc on Mason Rudolph and the Steelers' offensive line. Add in the tough weather conditions with 20-degree temperatures and 15 mph wind gusts, and there's a real chance the Steelers' offense looks like the unit it did for most of the season, even with Rudolph now running the show.
FLEX Trent Sherfield, WR, Bills ($3,200)
Sherfield stepped up in Davis' absence last week, posting three receptions for 24 yards and a highlight-reel touchdown (11.4 DK points). With his snap share set to increase significantly without Davis, Sherfield makes for a solid play. Opportunity is everything in DFS, and although he's hauled in just 11 receptions on the season, don't put it past him to achieve his best receiving yardage output thanks to his usage bump.