Super Wild Card Weekend concludes on Monday night with the fourth-seeded Buccaneers (+3) hosting the fifth-seeded Eagles (8:15 p.m ET, ABC).
Both squads enter the postseason trending in opposite directions: the Buccaneers are riding a late-season hot streak that saw them win five of their past six games en route to their third straight NFC South title, while a late-season collapse saw a once 10-1 Eagles team end the year 11-5, failing to win the division and resulting in a road playoff game for a team that had home-field advantage last season.
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Monday night marks the second time these squads meet this year, as Philadelphia notched a comfortable 25-11 road victory back in Week Three. However, the Buccaneers look very much like a live underdog this time around. Despite some injury concerns around Hurts' finger, Sports Interaction lists Philly as a 3-point road favorite to keep its season alive.
Will the Buccaneers deliver the knockout punch against the reigning NFC champs, or will the Eagles regain their form and advance to the divisional round? Below, we'll give you all the information you need before placing a wager on Monday's Buccaneers-Eagles contest, including the updated odds from Canada's most trusted sportsbook, Sports Interaction and our predictions for this wild-card round matchup.
Buccaneers vs. Eagles odds, spread, over/under
All odds courtesy of Sports Interaction
- Spread: Buccaneers +3 (-110) | Eagles +3 (-110)
- Total: OVER 43.5 (-110) | UNDER 43.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Buccaneers +135 | Eagles -160
Considering the Eagles closed as 6-point road favorites in an eventual 14-point victory in Week 3, one could make a case that the current 3-point spread in favor of Philly is short.
Despite both teams entering the Monday Night Football game with 2-0 records, the Eagles were seen as a legitimate Super Bowl contender and NFC favorite, while there was much more uncertainty around the Buccaneers, seemingly in a transition year.
Fast forward to present day, and the Eagles looked like they've lost their mojo from last season's Super Bowl run, going 0-6 ATS to close out the regular season. Conversely, Tampa owns a 4-1 ATS mark over the past five games and is clearly in better form ahead of Monday night.
While we know what the Eagles are capable of on the game's biggest stage, it’s hard to trust a team with a defense ranking 27th in success rate (45 percent) that’s allowing the second-most passing yards per game (252.7).
We’ve seen some deviation in the spread from Week 3 until now, but the over/under is set to close at a very similar price as it did that day (44 points). Considering the Buccaneers were still figuring out their offensive scheme with Mayfield at the helm, it’s hard to imagine another 11-point showing this time around, especially against an Eagles defense in rough form.
Tampa's ability to put scoreboard pressure on Philadelphia, forcing them to have to match scores.
Should you bet the Buccaneers against the spread?
With the Buccaneers' spread sitting at +3 (-110), we would advise bettors to wager on the team in better form at home at a good price. Can you truly justify giving the Eagles a three-point advantage in their current form? Not to mention, Hurts is just starting to throw the football again, wearing a glove to help grip the football. As a result, we're a bit surprised to see that the spread has not ticked back under the key number of three.
The one area of concern for the Buccaneers' offense centers around the Eagles' elite defensive front. For the most part, a steady Buccaneers offensive line held up against the Eagles' vaunted pass rush, with Mayfield sacked just two times. Should he continue to receive ample pass protection, chunk plays will be there with his steady cast of receivers.
While Monday night may look like a buy-low opportunity on last year’s NFC champs, it’s hard not to look past their current form. Therefore, we'll side with the Buccaneers at +3 (-110) and sprinkle a little bit on their moneyline (+135).
Our Pick: Buccaneers +3 (-110) and moneyline (+135)
Final score prediction: Buccaneers 24, Eagles 23
Should you bet the Buccaneers vs. Eagles OVER?
As for the total, although several key skill position players on both offenses are less than 100 percent, including both QBs, we're siding with the over 43.5 (-110). We think a Buccaneers cover is correlated to a higher scoring game, with Tampa's offense exposing the middle of the field against a struggling Eagles defense, leading to multiple scoring drives.
We don't expect Hurts and company to just roll over, as they figure to generate several scoring drives against a defense ranking 18th in EPA/play.