The second-seeded Bills (-10) host the seventh-seeded Steelers at Highmark Stadium in Buffalo, New York in the first game on Monday's wild-card doubleheader (4:30 p.m. ET, CBS).
Not too long ago, a matchup between these squads in the 2-7 game felt nearly impossible, with Buffalo owning a 6-6 record and Pittsburgh hovering near the .500 mark entering the home stretch of the regular season.
Fast forward to the new year, and both squads are playing their best football when it matters most, with the Bills winning five straight contests to earn the AFC's No. 2 seed and the Steelers going 3-0 to finish out the regular season after handing the reins to veteran QB Mason Rudolph.
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Although the Bills sit as the largest favorites both against the spread and on the moneyline in this week's wild-card slate, it's never wise to count on Mike Tomlin's crew, especially in the underdog role. During his tenure in Pittsburgh, Tomlin boasts an elite 57-31-3 ATS record (64.3%) as an underdog, and Buffalo's subpar 7-10 ATS record could point towards a more competitive game than the betting market expects.
Will the Bills take care of business and notch a sweat-free home win, or can the surging Steelers stay within the double-digit spread and potentially win outright? Below, we'll give you all the information you need before placing a wager on Monday's Bills-Steelers contest, including the updated odds from Canada's most trusted sportsbook, Sports Interaction and our predictions for this wild-card round matchup.
MORE BILLS-STEELERS: Best player props | DFS lineup
Bills vs. Steelers odds, spread, over/under
All odds courtesy of Sports Interaction
- Spread: Bills -10 (-110) | Steelers +10 (-110)
- Total: OVER 36.5 (-110) | UNDER 36.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Bills -550 | Steelers +400
The Bills are no stranger to being priced as double-digit favorites, and should Sunday's spread close at the current price of -10 (-110), it'll mark the fifth time Buffalo has been a double-digit favorite this season. Although the Bills own a 4-0 record straight up in those contests, they've yet to cover as a double-digit favorite. Will Sunday be the first time the Bills help spread bettors cash their tickets?
Conversely, the Steelers have yet to close as double-digit underdogs this season, with their previous highest spread coming in Week 5 against the Ravens (+5), a game Pittsburgh won outright 17-10. We've mentioned Tomlin's elite ATS record as an underdog throughout his time in the Steel City, and this season the Steelers own a profitable 7-4 ATS mark as 'dogs.
Regarding the total, despite the Steelers' late-season offensive surge (27 ppg over their final three games), the betting market doesn't expect their momentum to carry over, with SIA listing the Steelers' team total at 15.5, with heavy juice (-190) to the UNDER.
The game total of 36.5 points accounts for the projected 20-degree weather with 15 mph wind and an outside chance of snow. When factoring in the Steelers' reliance on RB Najee Harris (24 carries per game over the past three weeks), a low total is justified.
Buffalo has also leaned on its ground game during the stretch run of the regular season, with second-year back James Cook rushing for 1,122 yards while ranking as the league's third-most efficient back in terms of his expected points added (+22.2 EPA).
It's rare to see a total in the mid-30s in a game involving the Bills, with Sunday's matchup setting up to close as their lowest over/under of the season. A low-scoring game is nothing new for Tomlin's crew, as Sunday will be the 10th game with a closing total of fewer than 40 points. The Steelers have gone 5-3 to the UNDER in those contests, as the betting market has had a good feel for their lower-scoring contests.
Should you bet the Bills against the spread?
Even with the Bills moving from an opening number of -7.5 (-110) to its current price of -10 (-110), we'd advise betting the Bills to end their 0-4 ATS record as double-digit favorites, notching a rather stress-free victory over the Steelers.
Bettors might be hesitant to lay the points on Buffalo after scoring just 14 offensive points in last week's 21-14 road win in Miami, but if not for untimely red-zone miscues, the Bills could have easily beaten the Dolphins with a larger margin on Sunday night. Buffalo's first drive of the night ended in a Josh Allen interception in the end zone, but on the play prior, the officials missed a rather obvious pass interference call on TE Dawson Knox.
Right before the end of the first half, Dolphins' LB Jerome Baker's touchdown-saving tackle on the goal-line took a potential scoring drive off the board, as did DL Christian Wilkins' heady strip sack in the final seconds of the third quarter. All told, the Bills somehow managed to put up just 14 offensive points despite churning out 473 yards of offense.
Of course, Allen's turnover issues can always rear their ugly head, but it's hard to envision another 14-point offensive showing from Buffalo against a Pittsburgh defense missing star LB T.J. Watt (knee).
Not to rain on the Steelers' parade, but during their current three-game winning streak, they haven't faced a defense at the same level as the Bills. It's great to see the offense come to life under Rudolph, helping boost the confidence of his top two wideouts George Pickens and Diontae Johnson, but the Bengals and Seahawks are among the league's most inefficient stop units, ranking in the bottom six of the league in EPA/play.
Additionally, last week's 17-point showing over the Ravens unfortunately comes with an asterisk as the Ravens rested several key defensive cogs in Roquan Smith, Kyle Hamilton, Malik Harrison, and Marlon Humphrey.
With the Steelers' offense potentially falling back down to Earth, lay the points with the Bills at -10 (-110) to notch their first cover of the year as double-digit favorites.
Our Pick: Bills -10 (-110)
Final score prediction: Bills 23, Steelers 10
Should you bet the Bills vs. Steelers OVER?
Since we have concerns about the Steelers' ability to stay within the number, we're leaning towards the UNDER 36.5 (-110). Our final score projection has the Steelers scoring just 10 points, as a matchup against a Bills defense ranking seventh in EPA/play over its five-game winning streak leads us to believe Rudolph and company will have a tough time generating ample scoring drives to push this game OVER the total.
Should the Bills control Sunday's matchup throughout, we could see plenty of carries for Cook and fellow RB Leonard Fournette in a positive game state. In their 31-10 home win over the Cowboys in Week 15, the Bills dominated the time of possession (35:05-24:55) with Cook logging 25 carries for 179 yards and a score.
A similar game script bodes well for UNDER 36.5 (-110) bettors, as the Bills do just enough to gain margin on Pittsburgh, but not enough to take this game OVER the total.