How 4th-and-20 play from Week 18 in 2022 shaped the fates of Texans' C.J. Stroud, Bears' Caleb Williams

2024-09-15
7 min read
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Arguably one of the most consequential plays in Bears history happened in a game they weren't even a part of.

Most NFL fans knew at the time that the Texans' comeback to defeat the Colts in an otherwise meaningless Week 18 game two years ago would have serious draft implications. Houston fans were stunned by the win, while Bears fans rejoiced.

The lasting effects of the Texans' win, which came on the heels of an improbable 4th-and-20 conversion, aren't that simple. The victory had a far-reaching impact that altered the careers of a handful of young quarterbacks and even includes other franchises. 

Here's a look at the fateful 4th-and-20 play and how it impacted as many as five franchises.

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Texans' 4th-and-20 video

The Texans appeared to be headed for defeat in their final game of the season, which would have been enough to get Houston the No. 1 overall pick. That was the case until Davis Mills turned into a hero and found Jordan Akins for a go-ahead touchdown while facing 4th-and-20. 

The play was even more remarkable than it looked on paper, as Mills was chased all the way back to about the 44-yard line before he threw the ball. Considering Akins was a few yards into the end zone, Mills' pass likely had close to 50 air yards.

It would be a tremendous play for any quarterback, but it might be even more fascinating that it was a backup-caliber quarterback who threw the pass. The catch was also Akins' most recent NFL touchdown. 

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How Texans' 4th-and-20 played changed the NFL

The Texans' unlikely win landed them the No. 2 pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, bumping the Bears up to No. 1. 

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Had the Texans landed at No. 1, it isn't known whether they would have selected Bryce Young or C.J. Stroud. Houston certainly liked Stroud all along, but Young was considered by most evaluators to be the top quarterback prospect in the draft. With Stroud turning in a stellar rookie season and Young struggling to prove he can be a viable long-term starter, the Texans have to be glad they didn't end up having to make that decision.

The Bears weren't going to select a quarterback in 2023, as Justin Fields played well enough down the stretch in 2022 that taking Young or Stroud at No. 1 wasn't a serious consideration. By landing at No. 1, they were able to receive a massive haul from the Panthers — including the pick that ended up at No. 1 overall in 2024. Without getting the No. 1 pick in 2023 and trading it, it likely wouldn't have been possible for the Bears to select Caleb Williams.

What if the Bears got the No. 2 pick in 2023? There could be a scenario in which they still trade it to Carolina, which takes whichever quarterback is remaining between Young and Stroud. If the Panthers ended up with Stroud, though, it's hard to imagine they would have earned the No. 1 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft and therefore given the Bears the chance to take Williams.

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The Colts and Seahawks likewise might have been impacted by the Texans' improbable 4th-and-20 conversion. Had Indianapolis held on, the franchise would have been behind the Seahawks in the first round of the 2023 draft. Seattle owned the Broncos' pick, which became Devon Witherspoon.

However, the Seahawks were known to have serious interest in QB Anthony Richardson. Geno Smith was coming off a career year, but Seattle was connected to Richardson as a potential developmental QB throughout the pre-draft process, and Pete Carroll admitted after the draft that he was enamored by the Florida quarterback.

"Shoot, we flew all the way out there to go see him... We gave him tremendous consideration," Carroll told reporters

Instead, the Colts' loss allowed them to stay comfortably ahead of the Seahawks and make Richardson their franchise quarterback. 

If not for the Texans' 4th-and-20 conversion, fans could be looking at a scenario in which C.J. Stroud plays for the Panthers, Bryce Young plays for the Texans, Caleb Williams plays somewhere other than Chicago, Anthony Richardson has already taken over for Smith in Seattle, and the Colts are forced to keep hunting for their long-term solution at quarterback.

But, because Mills threw a dart to Akins in the end zone, none of that happened. The Texans are happy about the way everything turned out, and the Bears will be, too, if Williams pans out as they expect. The Colts can't complain about the loss, either. 

As for the Panthers and Seahawks, they might wonder what could have been if not for some Mills magic — though Carolina ultimately had the chance to take Stroud and can only blame itself in that regard.