Nuggets vs. Timberwolves prediction: Betting advice, point spread, player prop picks & more for Game 7

Included in this betting preview:

• Best bet against the spread
• Top over/under bet
• Highest-value player prop
• Full odds board for the day
• Updated NBA Playoffs bracket

It's the most exciting term in sports: Game 7. Nikola Jokic and the reigning-champion Nuggets face Anthony Edwards and the Wolves in a win-or-go-home situation at Ball Arena on Sunday night.

It's been a rollercoaster of a semifinal series. The Wolves stole the first two games in Denver, only to get upset twice back in Minneapolis. When the Nuggets won Game 5 at home in commanding fashion, things looked grim for Ant-man and company. Then Minnesota pulled off one of the biggest playoff beatdowns in NBA history, winning Game 6 at Target Center 115-70.

The winner of tonight's game will advance to the Western Conference Finals. It would mark just the second time in Timberwolves history the franchise competed in the penultimate round of the postseason. Denver, as everyone knows, swept the Lakers in the 2023 WCF en route to its first NBA championship.

Let's get to the top BetMGM value bets for Game 7 of the Nuggets vs. Wolves series, including the best spread, over/under, and player prop wagers.

Best NBA playoff odds and picks: Top ATS pick

Nuggets -1.5 (1Q) vs. Wolves (-115)

The Nuggets somehow allowed the Wolves to go on a 27-2 run starting in the first quarter of Game 6, making it basically impossible for Denver to ever even make it a competitive game. Now the reigning champions get a chance for redemption on their home floor, where they have won three of their past four first quarters this postseason.

What do we know about the Nuggets? They love playing at home, and they play really well after a loss. They have gone 37-10 at Ball Arena since the start of the 2023-24 season, and they're 20-8 following a loss during that stretch. Their record in first quarters following a loss: also 20-8, with a +89 point differential. 

FIRST QUARTER PREDICTION: Nuggets 27, Wolves 24 — Denver wins the quarter (-160) and covers the -1.5 spread (-115), while the final score finishes OVER the projected first-quarter total of 48.5 (-110).

Best NBA playoff odds and picks: Top over/under bet

Nuggets team total OVER 101.5 vs. Wolves (-110)

The Nuggets laid an egg in Minneapolis on Thursday — that's indisputable. However, the three games prior to Game 5 saw Denver finish with point totals of 117, 115, and 112. Does anyone really expect the reigning champions to be held to 101 or fewer points in the most important game of their season? 

Denver has averaged 116.4 points per home game since the start of the 2023-24 season, while Minnesota has surrendered 113.7 PPG per away game. The Nuggets have also scored 112-plus against Minnesota on two different occasions over the past two months.

It's understandable to adjust Denver's expectations a bit given Jamal Murray's questionable elbow, Michael Porter Jr.'s shooting struggles, and Minnesota's stifling defense — but this is three-time MVP Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets in altitude we're talking about here. The champs show up and put on another show with the lights shining the brightest (NOTE: If you don't trust Denver as much, the full-game OVER of 198.5 seems low and yields plenty of value).

FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: Nuggets 104, Wolves 101 — Denver wins (-190) and goes over its team total projection of 101.5 (-110), while the final score finishes OVER the projected total of 198.5 (-105).

Best NBA playoff odds and picks: Top player prop bet

Michael Porter Jr. points: UNDER 13.5 (-110)

One of the best bets in basketball right now is MPJ's UNDER, as the sharpshooter has hit a period of sharp decline against the Wolves.

For one, Porter Jr. can't seem to get anything going off the dribble. Minnesota has also closed out well on him outside the arc, limiting the open catch-and-shoot looks that made him one of the most efficient scorers in the second-half of the regular season.

MPJ's costly turnovers have also forced Michael Malone to bench him for Christian Braun multiple times to close out games. Don't bet on Denver getting Porter Jr. too many looks in an elimination game with the entire season hanging in the balance.

NBA playoff bets and spreads tonight: Full odds board

All odds courtesy of BetMGM, an authorized gaming operator of the NBA.

NBA Playoffs updated bracket