The eighth-seeded Heat will head to Madison Square Garden on Sunday to play the fifth-seeded Knicks in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference semifinals at 1 p.m. ET (ABC). Miami upset the first-seeded Bucks in the first round, while the Knicks defeated the fourth-seeded Cavaliers in five games.
During the regular season, the Knicks took three out of four games from the Heat. New York hopes that is a good sign, as they will be playing Miami in the playoffs for the first time since 2000. Meanwhile, the Heat are in the second round for the second-straight season and the third time in the past four seasons. Jimmy Butler had an awesome first-round against the Bucks and will need similar performances for Miami to return to the Eastern Conference Finals.
Nevertheless, the Knicks are the betting favorites (-160) to win this series, but the veteran-led Heat will not be phased by the moment and will be prepared for anything that Jalen Brunson and Co. throw at them.
Can Butler lead the Heat to another upset win in Game 1, or will Brunson and the Knicks put on a show at MSG? Below, we'll break down Sunday's Heat-Knicks matchup, giving our prediction and best bets for the 2023 NBA Playoffs.
Heat vs. Knicks odds, picks, predictions
- Spread: Heat +4.5 (-115); Knicks -4.5 (-105)
- Over/Under: OVER 207.5 (-110); UNDER 207.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Heat +155; Knicks -190
The Knicks are 4.5-point favorites heading into tomorrow's Game 1 at Madison Square Garden. New York played well at home in the first round, winning both games by 20 and nine points over the Cavs. Along those same lines, the Knicks were a good home team during the regular season (23-18). That success has carried over to betting as New York is 22-20-1 against the spread at MSG (including the postseason) and 17-15 ATS as a home favorite.
If the Knicks want to take Game 1 from the upset-minded Heat, they must defend the three-point line. We saw the Heat shoot 45 percent from deep (best in the NBA playoffs), which is a notable difference from the regular season (34.4 percent -- 27th in the NBA). New York allowed the Cavaliers to shoot 32.7 percent from beyond the arc in the first round and ended the regular season with the 12th-best three-point defense (35.7 percent).
The Heat will do everything in their power to keep Brunson in check on the perimeter, so Julius Randle must win his matchup. Last round, Randle averaged 14.4 points and 6.4 rebounds per game after missing some time with a sprained left ankle. He reaggravated the injury in Game 5 and is doubtful to play on Sunday. If Randle cannot go, the Knicks will have to get offense from elsewhere -- Josh Hart, R.J. Barrett, etc.
Meanwhile, the Heat are looking to topple another top seed in their quest to return to the Eastern Conference Finals. Miami leaned on Butler, who turned in a historic 56-point performance in Game 4 and followed it up with 45 points in the series-clinching win in Game 5. However, Butler can't do it alone, as he will need Bam Adebayo (20 points, 10 rebounds, and 10 assists) to step up like he did in Game 5 and be a presence inside the low post. Adebayo is listed as doubtful with a hamstring strain, but it would be shocking to see him not play on Sunday.
The Heat are 18-25 ATS on the road and 10-11 as road 'dogs this season (including the postseason), but we just saw them defy the odds in Round 1. Can Miami steal Game 1? Without a doubt. However, we think the Knicks will ultimately win and set the tone on Sunday afternoon.
Prediction: Knicks 102, Heat 96. The Knicks (-4.5) cover the spread, with the game going UNDER the total (207.5)
Best player prop bet for Heat vs. Knicks: Jalen Brunson OVER 5.5 assists (-115)
If the Knicks want to take Game 1 on Sunday afternoon, they will need Brunson to be a scorer and get other players involved. In the first round against the Cavs, Brunson averaged 4.8 assists per game, which is lower than his season average (6.2). However, the former Villanova standout dished out more than 5.5 assists in three out of the five-game series (two at home).
Brunson was successful against the Heat during the regular season, dishing out 5.7 assists per game. The Heat allowed the eighth-fewest assists per game to PGs this season, but that will not deter us as Brunson is the Knicks' primary ball-handler.