The American League MVP race hasn’t been a race for quite some time, not after Shohei Ohtani won the AL Player of the Month awards in June and July.
In fact, his lead is so large in the MVP “race” that he could stop playing right now and still win the award. He’d probably get all 30 votes, unless there are a few contrarians among the electorate this year (two BBWAA members for each of the 15 AL cities, btw).
Of course, WAR isn’t a perfect stat, but it’s a really good place to start. Ohtani’s combined WAR is 9.2 by Baseball-Reference’s formula, 8.2 with FanGraphs’ calculation. No other player in the AL — by either equation — tops 5.4. Yeah. There are no hairs to be split here.
It’s Ohtani’s world, and we’re all just fascinated spectators.
So, what about the race for second place? That one’s much more competitive. Today, we’re going to take a look at a couple players who will be vying for the most second-place votes. Wander Franco is currently second in position-player WAR (on both sites), but we’ll leave him out of this discussion, for obvious reasons.
FAGAN: Ohtani's Angels run will end with no playoffs, no compensation
Corey Seager, Rangers
The first season after he shocked many in baseball by signing a 10-year, $325 million free-agent deal with the Rangers was, let’s say, underwhelming. He hit a career-high 33 home runs, but his rate stats were almost all far below his career averages; for example, his career slash line heading into the 2021 season: .297/.367/.504. His slash line in 2022: .245/.317/.455.
He’s settled into his new digs, it seems. How good has he been?
Consider this: Seager ranks 82nd among all AL players with his 339 plate appearances — he spent roughly a month on the IL starting in mid-April, then missed another 10 games in late July — but he’s third in bWAR, which is a cumulative statistic. By FanGraphs’ calculation, he’s fifth. That, folks, is how good Corey Seager has been in 2023.
He’s batting .348 with a .407 on-base percentage and 183 OPS+. He has 20 home runs, 31 doubles (fourth in the AL!), 68 RBIs and 57 runs scored. Seems obvious, of course, but the Rangers are a much better team with Seager than without him. Proof?
Rangers with Seager: 47-28, .637 winning percentage
Rangers w/o Seager: 23-20, .535 winning percentage
If he’d been healthy all year, it’s not unreasonable to think the Rangers would have a much bigger lead in the AL West, and they’d probably have the AL’s best record.
MORE: Breaking down the NL MVP race
Marcus Semien, Rangers
The first season after he shocked many in baseball by signing a 7-year, $175 million free-agent deal with the Rangers was, let’s say, somewhat underwhelming. He had a career-high 25 stolen bases, but his rate stats were almost all below his previous few seasons; for example, his slash line from 2018-2021: .264/.338/.473. His slash line in 2022: .248/.304/.429.
He’s settled into his new digs, it seems. How good has he been?
OK, enough with the “same as Seager” bit. It is kind of amazing how similar their first two seasons in Texas have gone, though. While Seager has had IL stints, though, Semien has been a rock in the lineup for the Rangers, which is why his improved production — 48 points in on-base percentage, 15 points in OPS+ — has been so important. Semien leads the AL with 94 runs scored (he had 101 in 162 games last year), and his bWAR is 5.0, after a 5.7 last year.
Also, he’s continued his work on cutting down on strikeouts; he’s at a career-best 13.1 strikeout percentage this year. And ask literally anyone who’s played with Semien or covered teams with Semien and they’ll tell you his leadership is instrumental in the clubhouse. He might not have Seager’s raw numbers, but playing every day at a high level matters.
Luis Robert, Jr., White Sox
Robert looked like a superstar when healthy in 2021, batting .338 with 13 homers and a 154 OPS+ in 68 games, but that never materialized in 2022. He spent more time on the IL and struggled to find his power when healthy, with 12 homers in 401 PAs. He’s corrected that in 2023, with 31 homers — second to Ohtani in the AL — in 469 PAs. Robert would need a strong finish to pass either of the Texas players, likely.
Kyle Tucker, Astros
With 22 homers and 24 stolen bases, Tucker has a chance to join the 30/30 club.
MORE: How fast is Bobby Witt Jr.?
Bobby Witt, Jr.
Want a dark horse? The second-year player — the No. 2 overall pick in the 2019 MLB Draft — has now passed 20 homers and 30 stolen bases in each of his first two seasons in the bigs, and there’s plenty of time to boost those numbers, especially with how well he’s been playing lately. In his past 20 games, Witt has been damn near impossible to stop, with a .417 average, six homers, 21 RBIs, six doubles and seven stolen bases.