The 2024 NRL regular season is reaching its climax, with seven teams already qualified for the finals but looking to finish as high as possible on the ladder.
Melbourne have already wrapped up the minor premiership, with the reigning champions the Panthers viewed as their biggest threats.
Lower down the top eight, the Dragons' hopes of securing a return to finals football have faded, with the Dolphins now occupying the last spot.
With the makeup of the finals beginning to become more clear, The Sporting News looks at who is favourite to come out victorious on Grand Final day.
MORE: NRL live ladder | NRL Finals schedule
Who will win the 2024 Grand Final? Betting odds to win Grand Final
Two teams are standout favourites to be involved in this year's grand final according to the bookmakers –Melbourne and Penrith
The Storm have forged a solid gap as favourites after securing the minor premiership, currently sitting at $2.75, with the Panthers dropping back to $3.20 after a pair of losses.
The Roosters were previously up there in the odds, but some key injuries and a recent loss to the Raiders have seen them plunge to $6.50.
The gap increases from there on, with Cronulla, Canterbury and Manly currently priced at $11.00, $13.00 and $15.00 respectively.
The teams at the bottom end of the eight or just outside the finals are given little to no chance of winning, which comes as little surprise given the last time a team outside the top four won the premiership came way back in 1995.
Odds via Sportsbet, updated September 1
| Team | Odds to win Grand Final | Odds to make Grand Final |
|---|---|---|
| Melbourne Storm | $2.75 | TBC |
| Penrith Panthers | $3.20 | TBC |
| Sydney Roosters | $6.50 | TBC |
| Cronulla Sharks | $12.00 | TBC |
| Canterbury Bulldogs | $15.00 | TBC |
| Manly Sea Eagles | $18.00 | TBC |
| North Queensland Cowboys | $31.00 | TBC |
| Newcastle Knights | $91.00 | TBC |
| Dolphins | $91.00 | TBC |
Who will qualify for the Grand Final? Predictions and analysis
History tells us it is highly likely the two grand final teams will come from the top four, with just two instances of teams outside of the top four reaching the big dance since the finals system was changed in 2012.
These teams were the Bulldogs in 2014 (7th) and the North Queensland Cowboys in 2017 (8th); on both occasions, those underdogs were handed a heavy defeat in the decider.
Whilst no side outside the top four has won a premiership in 29 years, just finishing in the top four is no guarantee of winning the grand final.
Winning in week one has been a crucial indicator in the past of who will go on to lift the Provan Summons Trophy, with only one side losing in week one going on to win the grand final since 2012.
This happened in the COVID-affected season of 2021 where the Panthers were surprisingly defeated by the South Sydney Rabbitohs in week one; the Panthers recovered by defeating the Eels and minor premiers Melbourne to set up a rematch with South Sydney, which they won by two points.
With three rounds to go, the exact makeup of the finals is far from certain, but based on the current standings it is hard to look past Melbourne and Penrith facing off in the grand final against each other in a rematch from the 2020 decider.
Both have had to contend with injuries to key players, yet have been a class above the rest and also have players and coaching staff who have been there and done that.
As it stands, Melbourne will host Cronulla in week one, who have an awful record in Melbourne - though they can take solace from the fact they claimed a rare win there in the regular season.
Similarly the Roosters will be in a similar boat when they face Penrith, with the Mountain Men currently on a nine-game winning streak against the Tricolours.
Of the teams outside the top four who could crash the party, the Bulldogs look most likely after their brilliant second half of the season; they would fancy themselves against the likes of Sydney or Cronulla given they defeated both in the regular season, and have arguably player of the season Stephen Crichton in top form.
When is the 2024 NRL Grand Final?
The 2024 NRL Grand Final will be held on October 6 at Accor Stadium in Sydney, which has hosted every version of the Grand Final bar one since 1999.
The biggest game of the season is slated to be held at the venue every year until at least 2046; the only time the Grand Final was held outside of the stadium since 1999 was in 2021 due to COVID restrictions limiting games to only be played in Queensland, with the big dance being played at Suncorp Stadium in Brisbane.