Game 6 of the 2022 NBA Finals is scheduled for 9 p.m. ET on Thursday at TD Garden between the Warriors and Celtics. Before placing any wagers on what could be the final game of the season, we’ll give you all the betting insight you need to know, including the latest odds, trends, and predictions.
Golden State is one win away from hoisting the Larry O’Brien trophy after defeating Boston 104-94 in Game 5 on Monday night. Stephen Curry struggled offensively for the Warriors, but it didn’t matter thanks to the inspired play of Andrew Wiggins and some timely buckets from Klay Thompson and Jordan Poole. Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, who played well in spurts but were ultimately inconsistent in Game 5, will now return home in a must-win spot to keep their title dreams alive.
Warriors vs. Celtics: Odds, betting trends for NBA Finals Game 6
- Spread: Celtics -4
- Over/under: 210.5
- Moneyline: Warriors +137, Celtics -167
Betting odds per Vegas Insider consensus
Heading into Game 6, the Warriors are 5-1 with a 3-2 series lead under head coach Steve Kerr. However, Golden State has not fared well on the road in the postseason, going 4-5. The good news for Warriors fans is the team that wins Game 5 in the NBA Finals when the series is tied 2-2 goes on to win the series 73 percent of the time (22-8).
3 betting trends to watch
It’s time for Game 6 Klay
Thompson had his fair share of struggles through the first two games of the NBA Finals but has found his groove in the past three games. Thompson produced another efficient outing in Game 5, posting 21 points on 7-of-14 shooting from the field and 5-of-11 from three-point range.
Thompson will now look to turn back the clock one more time in Game 6, where he’s had a ton of success in his career. In 12 career Game 6s, he’s averaging 20.7 points per game and shooting 44.6 percent from the field and 49.5 percent from beyond the arc. Earlier this postseason against Memphis, Thompson went off for 30 points (11-of-22 FG, 8-of-14 from deep) in Game 6. We could be in store for another vintage performance from the veteran sharpshooter.
Boston’s bench needs to step up
If the Celtics have any chance of winning on Thursday, they will need their bench to step up and force the Warriors to defend them. In Game 5, Derrick White and Grant Williams were non-existent, scoring a combined four points (1-of-6 FG, 0-of-4 from three) in 37 minutes.
White and Williams were outscored and outplayed by Jordan Poole and Gary Payton II (20 points, 10-of-16 FG, 4-of-9 from three). This cannot happen again in Game 6, or the Celtics’ will be in trouble. White is averaging 11.4 points per game in the NBA Finals and will need to match that scoring average in an elimination game for Boston.
Wiggins continues his dominance on the boards
The first-time All-Star forward had an outstanding performance in Game 4, where he pulled down a career-high 16 rebounds and added 17 points in a 10-point win. Wiggins did not rest on his laurels, instead picking up where he left off in Game 5. The 27-year-old wing did it all for the Warriors, leading the way with 26 points and 13 rebounds.
In a two-game stretch, Wiggins has outrebounded Al Horford (17), Robert Williams (20), Jaylen Brown (15), Kevon Looney (15), Draymond Green (17), and Tatum (21). Wiggins’ rebound prop is over/under 7.5 for Game 6. With the way he's boxing out and competing inside the paint, you should hammer the OVER. Wiggins has been the Warriors’ second-best player in this series, and that should continue on the road in Boston.
Warriors vs. Celtics Game 6: Expert betting picks
Against the spread
Warriors -4. The Warriors showcased their championship DNA in the past two games, which has them on the brink of winning their fourth title in as many years. Golden State will look for a big bounce-back game from Curry, who went 0-for-9 from three-point range. It’s unlikely that he’ll go 0-for again considering that prior to Monday night, he hadn’t had a game without at least one made three-pointer since Nov. 8, 2018, and the last time he had consecutive games without a made three-pointer was in November of 2012.
Golden State is 2-6 against the spread in its past eight road games, but it’s 5-1 straight up with a 3-2 series lead. The Celtics should play better at TD Garden; however, with their turnover issues, it’s tough to say if they will win. The Celtics are averaging 15.3 turnovers per game at home in the playoffs. Meanwhile, the Warriors are producing 16.3 points per game off of turnovers in the playoffs and 16.1 ppg on the road. Therefore, take the Warriors to cover and close out this series in six games.
Over/Under
UNDER 210.5. The under (211.5) was able to hit for the second consecutive game on Monday night due to good defense from Golden State and poor offense from Boston. The Celtics shot 26.7 percent from the field in the final frame, while the Warriors shot 50 percent.
Tatum has played a significant part in those struggles, shooting just 23.8 percent in the fourth quarter. These are just some of the reasons why bettors should take the UNDER 210.5 in Game 6. It would take an offensive outburst that we saw in Game 1 or Game 3 to surpass the 210.5 total, and it’s hard to see that with two of the best defensive teams in the playoffs.
Player prop
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook
Jaylen Brown OVER 23.5 points (-118). With Tatum dealing with his various issues in the fourth quarter, the Celtics need Brown to take over and get off to a hot start in Game 6. The 25-year-old has played extremely well in the Celtics’ two wins in this series, averaging 25.5 points (49.9 percent from the field), eight rebounds, and five assists per game.
However, in three losses, Brown has been held to 18.6 points (34.8 percent from the field), seven rebounds, and three assists per game. It’s a complete night-and-day difference, which is one of the reasons why the Celtics are in this spot. Brown has gone over 23.5 points twice in this series, which coincidentally were the wins. Simply put, if Brown goes over his points prop, then the C’s will be in good shape for a potential Game 6 win. Either way, he's going to play as many minutes as needed in this do-or-die game, so Brown can hit his OVER based on volume alone.