For the first time since the 2005-06 season, the Sacramento Kings' season extends past 82 games. Following a 48-34 campaign that saw Mike Brown's crew earn the Western Conference's No. 3 seed, the Kings are back in the NBA Playoffs. Ending the NBA's longest postseason drought is worthy of a celebration, but the Kings aren't satisfied with just being a part of the playoffs, they want to keep their historic season alive with a deep run.
Even though Kings fans are eager to pack the Golden 1 Center for Games 1 and 2 with the hope of lighting the beam when the final buzzer sounds, getting past the reigning NBA champion Warriors won't be an easy task. Sure, Golden State had a down regular season by its standards, but the Dubs are playing their best basketball at the right time, winning 10 of 15 games down the stretch. Golden State's also at full strength with Andrew Wiggins (personal) back with the team after missing almost two months and Stephen Curry as healthy as he's been all year.
Which team has the edge in this playoff rendition of the Battle of NorCal? Below, we'll down the Kings-Warriors series odds via TAB and give our prediction on how we think this best-of-seven might shake out.
Kings vs. Warriors series odds, picks, predictions
| Team | Series Odds |
| Kings | $3.20 |
| Warriors | $1.35 |
Despite the Warriors' road woes this season (11-30), the betting market isn't too worried about the Kings' home-court advantage in this best-of-seven. The Warriors are clear favourites over the third-seeded Kings, and while their postseason success can't be ignored, do they really have a 65-plus-percent chance of taking down the Kings?
We do think the Warriors warrant being the series favorites, but a $1.35 price tag is way too steep to warrant wagering on before this best-of-seven gets underway on Sunday. As much as we commend Mike Brown for helping lead the Kings back to the playoffs, we think the Warriors' superior defense is the difference in this series. We know both teams are going to score the rock, with Sacramento donning the league's best offensive rating (118.6) and Golden State owning the 10th-best OffRtg (115.1). Saturday's over/under for Game 1 also sits as the highest total of any of the already-determined first-round series at a whopping 238.5 points.
Ultimately, in games that more than likely come down to the final minutes when both offenses slow the pace and execute their sets in the half-court, which team do you trust more? The team with the fifth-best defensive rating in the clutch (Golden State) or the team with the 26th-best defensive rating in the clutch (Sacramento)?
Of course, De'Aaron Fox, the odds-on favorite to win the NBA's Clutch Player of the Year has something to say about that, but for the Kings to win four games against the Warriors, it will take much more than just Fox leading the charge in late-game situations.
Will Domantas Sabonis have the upper hand against the Warriors' interior defense as he did in the regular season? Sabonis averaged 21.7 points per game to go along with 16.7 rebounds and six assists, but the playoffs are an entirely different entity. You can almost throw out what happened in the regular season, as you have to expect Steve Kerr to gameplan a way to throw Sabonis off his game just enough.
What about Davion Mitchell? Can he slow down Curry and Jordan Poole on the defensive end while playing through the flow of the offense on the other end? Can Kevin Huerter, Harrison Barnes, and Keegan Murray space the floor at the same efficiency as they did in the regular season?
Ultimately, we agree with the betting market's assessment of this series, and while we're siding with Golden State to emerge victorious, we don't see an edge in laying -275 to bet the Warriors to win the series. We think you'd be better off taking the Warriors against the spread each game of the series if you agree with us that Golden State's likely to execute their sets at a more efficient clip in closing time.
Prediction: Warriors ($3.15) defeat the Kings in six games.
Best series prop bet for Kings vs. Warriors: Correct Series Result
For our best series prop, we'll look toward the correct series result market and wager on the Golden State Warriors to win the series 4-2 at $3.15 odds. We're thinking the Warriors steal one of the first two games at the Golden 1 Center, win games three and four at the Chase Center, lose Game 5 on the road, and clinch a spot in the second round in Game 6.
Considering the Warriors series line of -1.5 games has a $1.70 price tag attached to it, we'd rather attempt to cash in this $3.15 prop for Golden State to win in exactly six games.