For the better part of a decade, I researched and wrote the Field of 68 college basketball NCAA Tournament predictions every week during the winter. Loved it. Miss it, too. So when it came time to find a new way to approach the MLB power rankings for this season, I thought it would be fun to dip back into that idea — sans the KenPom ratings and Quad 1 records.
So here we go. They’re still power rankings in that we’re going to rank teams from 1 to 12. Why only 12? Because that’s how many teams make the playoffs — six in the AL, six in the NL. So, yes, we’ll have six from each league in the top 12, then chat about three more teams that are intriguing. That’s not a “first three out” thing, for you bracketologists, just three teams to think about for reasons good and bad.
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Anyway, that’s how we came up with the TSN15, our MLB Power Rankings.
1. Rays, 20-5
Projected spot: AL East champs
The depth of the Rays’ lineup really is rather stunning. They have eight players with at least four home runs already this season, led by Yandy Diaz and Brandon Lowe, with six each. Here’s another rather amazing stat: Lowe has a 138 OPS+ so far this year, a number that would have ranked just outside the top 10 in the AL last year. He’s currently eighth on his own team in OPS+ among players with at least 50 plate appearances. At some point, of course, the bats will cool down a bit, but this Rays team is really, really impressive (even with the losses to the Astros this week).
2. Braves, 17-8
Projected spot: NL East champs
Atlanta has been the NL’s best team, by far, despite …
— Marcell Ozuna’s dead weight (.085 average, 8 OPS+) taking up a spot in the batting order most nights. The DFA watch is real.
— Michael Harris II, Travis d’Arnaud and Orlando Arcia on the IL
— Closer Raisel Iglesias on the IL all year, and Michael Soroka still working his way back to the rotation
Seriously, how good will this team be when/if it ever reaches full strength?
3. Blue Jays, 16-9
Projected spot: AL wild card
Last year wasn’t the best year for either Vladimir Guerrero Jr. or Bo Bichette. Both were still very good, just not as good as they can be. But both have started the 2023 season like they’re out to establish just how good they can be. Vlad’s batting .333 and Bo’s at .340, so maybe it’s not surprising that the Jays are off to a solid start. And if Matt Chapman really has found his batting stroke — he’s hitting .364 with a 207 OPS+ — after a couple of down years at the plate? Yeah, the Jays will definitely cruise into October.
4. Brewers, 16-9
Projected spot: NL Central champs
I’ll be honest: If you would have told me that Corbin Burnes had a 4.55 ERA and Brandon Woodruff had only made two starts and was currently on the IL near the end of April, I probably would have guessed that the Brewers were in last place. But, surprise! The Brew Crew is playing good baseball, with timely hitting and generally outstanding bullpen work. Closer Devin Williams and relievers Bryse Wilson and Peter Strzelecki have combined for a 0.76 ERA and 38 strikeouts in 35 2/3 brilliant innings out of the bullpen.
5. Orioles, 16-8
Projected spot: AL wild card
The Orioles are Kings of Drama so far this season, with three walk-off wins and five other Ws with a margin of one of two runs. That’s what happens when you have five relievers with at least seven appearances and an ERA of 2.25 or lower — three of those at 0.93 or better. Teams that have bullpens throwing up zeroes tend to win a lot of games.
6. Astros, 14-11
Projected spot: AL West champs
They’ll be higher, sooner than later. The back-to-back shutout wins on the road vs. baseball’s best team was proof of that, for those who might have been doubting after the slow start to the season.
7. Pirates, 17-8
Projected spot: NL wild card
A week or so ago, I asked Andrew McCutchen about his team’s strong start to the season. He smiled. “Hopefully,” he said, “we just continue to just keep taking it day by day and just doing the little things.” So far, so good. The Pirates are winning with a solid formula: They’re getting good starting pitching, they’re closing out games in late innings, they’re playing solid defense and they’re hitting timely homers.
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Oh, and these Pirates have taken advantage of the new rules encouraging stolen bases as well as any team in the bigs. In Wednesday’s 8-1 win over the Dodgers, they went 6-for-6 in stolen base attempts. They lead the majors with 34 steals, with 14 different players swiping at least one bag. No other team has more than 10.
8. Mets, 14-11
Projected spot: NL wild card
It’s been a rather tumultuous start for the Mets, but here they are, surviving. Justin Verlander is at least on the path back to the Citi Field mound, and Max Scherzer will be back from his suspension soon enough.
9. Dodgers, 13-12
Projected spot: NL West champs
The 2023 Dodgers, folks, are not as good as recent editions. Yeah, they’re still “playoff good,” and probably even still “NL West champs good.” But they won’t win 104 games or more, as they have in four of the past five 162-game seasons. We’ve seen some of these shortcomings on display in the first month of the season. The bullpen has questions, and the lineup isn’t nearly as deep as we’ve become accustomed to. But the good news is starter Tony Gonsolin made his return to the rotation on Wednesday, and Ryan Pepiot is on his way back, too.
10. Diamondbacks, 14-12
Projected spot: NL wild card
They are, as manager Torey Lovullo told me last week, “finding ways to win games.” And when Zac Gallen on the mound, it’s easier to win those than others. He’s on an incredible run. In his past four starts (including Wednesday’s win vs. Kansas City), Gallen has …
— 27 innings
— 11 hits allowed
— 1 walk allowed
— 41 strikeouts
— 0 runs allowed.
11. Twins, 14-11
Projected spot: AL Central champs
The rotation is outstanding, bordering on elite. The offense hasn’t been as good, but Carlos Correa, Max Kepler and Jose Miranda should shake off slow starts.
12. Yankees, 14-11
Projected spot: AL wild card
Can Gerrit Cole pitch every game? But seriously, how good has he been? He’s pitching like he’s determined to finally win his first Cy Young award after finishing in the top five of the voting five previous times in his career.
Three on the outside
Padres, 13-13
Pretty much the entire San Diego offense — aside from Xander Bogaerts — has struggled this season, and that goes double for Manny Machado and his 53 OPS+. And it doesn’t help that a couple of veteran starters are pitching poorly, in Michael Wacha (6.75 ERA) and Blake Snell (5.48 ERA). They’ll get better. They’re too talented to be this mediocre.
Rangers, 14-10
That series in Cincinnati was one the Rangers would rather erase from their memory banks completely. The Reds scored 11 runs combined in the eighth and ninth innings of those three games and won by scores of 7-6, 7-6 and 5-3. Two of those Cincy wins were via the walk-off. The lack of a clear-cut closer was a bit of a concern this spring, and it’s becoming pretty obvious that the Rangers will have to get that figured out if they’re going to challenge for a playoff spot in a crowded AL field.
Cardinals, 9-16
This squad, predicted by just about everyone to run away with the NL Central title again this year, is a complete mess right now. Maybe the most amazing statistic of this unexpected poor start: The club is 0-8 in the opening game of a series. No, really. It’s hard to draw any conclusions from that by itself, but it is rather amazing. The Opening Day roster was not a good mix of positions and talent, and the resulting playing time issues have been evident. Still, the club has too much talent to be mired this far below .500 for long, but maybe it’s time to reassess what the ceiling is for 2023.